Since the start of the 2020 MLB season, we have seen many profitable days with our daily picks column. However, we hadn’t yet put together a perfect day — until yesterday. We put together a tidy 3-0 record that was never in doubt. All it took was a little creativity, with first inning lines, a ninth-inning prop, and a run line/total runs double as our picks. I will admit, it was nice to break away from the typical moneyline and totals wagers. While karma would say we should stick with these off-the-radar wagers, they take a lot of research and effort, so it may be a while before we go back to that well again.
Before making wagers today, keep your eye on weather reports, as Tropical Storm Isaias may wreak havoc on all east coast action. The Yankees-Phillies game has already been postponed due to the severe weather forecast.
As we try and build on yesterday’s success, here are my top MLB betting plays for Tuesday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook).
YTD: 25-15-1 (+10.13 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Cincinnati Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-120)
We loved us some Shane Bieber before the season started, as we pegged him as the American League Cy Young award winner. As a result, this play is all about the Indians’ starter, as his first two outings were nothing short of sensational. Bieber has been baseball’s best pitcher thus far, and it’s not close. He has allowed zero runs in 14 innings, walking one and striking out 27. His 27 strikeouts tie an MLB record for most strikeouts in one’s first two starts. His WHIP of 0.50 means that he’s rarely allowed any baserunners, either.
Bieber takes on a Reds offense that hasn’t topped four runs in any of their last four games. Cincinnati ranks 21st in the majors with a .219 team batting average, and they are also outside the top ten in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. None of that is a good recipe for success against a locked-in Shane Bieber. Look for him to go deep in the game once again, limiting Cincinnati’s chances of scraping runs across from any of Cleveland’s relievers.
Dodgers-Padres OVER 8.5 runs (-110)
The Dodgers and Padres combined for nine runs in the series opener with arguably each team’s best pitchers (Walker Buehler and Chris Paddack) on the mound. What makes one think they cannot at least match that total with Dustin May and Dinelson Lamet toeing the rubber?
To each pitcher’s credit, they have started the season strong. May has a 2.35 ERA through his first two starts, while Lamet has been even better with a 1.80 ERA. However, the more that each of these youngsters pitch, the more of their arsenal is exposed for hitters to exploit.
In addition, while last night’s game had nine combined runs, it also featured five solo home runs. The total could have looked a lot different if any of those home runs came with people on base. In particular, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been taxed lately, as their starters have worked past the sixth inning just once in 11 games. The over is 4-1-1 in these teams’ last six meetings in San Diego, and we’ll look for that trend to continue tonight.
Oakland -1.5 (+130)
When scouring through all the lines on Tuesday’s slate, the one that jumped out the most was the moneyline on the A’s-Rangers matchup. If Cleveland ace Shane Bieber has been the most impressive pitcher in baseball thus far, Texas starter Lance Lynn might not be too far behind. Lynn has not allowed an earned run in 12 innings, with a WHIP of 0.75 and recording 17 strikeouts. Yet the Rangers are +138 underdogs with Lynn on the mound tonight at Oakland, who are -160 moneyline favorites.
This tells me one thing: Vegas knows! Perhaps oddsmakers’ reasoning is that Lynn’s first two starts were at home, and now he is making his first road start. Or, they could believe that Oakland’s offense is ready to break out, as their 11-run outburst last night against Seattle was the first time they topped three runs in the last seven games. Either way, we’ll side with the fact that Lynn is due for some regression, as his 5.66 ERA in four career starts against Oakland leaves something to be desired.
We are heavily confident that Oakland will win the game, though, so I wouldn’t put anyone off a moneyline wager at a reasonable -160 odds. However, we will take our chances on the runline with much greater potential returns at odds of +130.
View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.