Between a rainout in Cleveland and the coronavirus postponing two games, yesterday’s betting card was significantly smaller than usual. However, we will never complain about a 2-0 day. Both moneyline picks won their respective games by a combined score of 28-11. There is still some uncertainty heading into Tuesday about more games that may be postponed, but we forge on nonetheless.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Tuesday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook).
YTD: 7-4-1 (+2.56 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Milwaukee ML (-150)
There is a saying in baseball that “momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher.” However, I am not sure that the phrase applies when a team blows a 5-1 lead in the ninth inning.
The Brewers scored four times to even the game at 5-5 before winning 6-5 in 11 innings yesterday. As a result, they will look to carry this momentum into the second game of the series at PNC Park. Milwaukee has crushed left-handed starters of late, which is good news for them as they take Pittsburgh Derek Holland. The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six games against lefties, and they are 4-0 in their last four games in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are 2-2 on the season, and former MVP Christian Yelich has yet to do anything at the plate. He is due to break out of his 1-for-18 slump to start the season.
Oddsmakers do not seem to mind that Milwaukee’s starter, Josh Lindblom, has not made a start in the majors since 2014. He spent the last two seasons in the Korean Baseball Association (KBO) with the Doosan Bears, where he was named the league’s MVP in 2019. Lindblom makes just his seventh career start on Tuesday. Given these circumstances, it would be understandable to be nervous about backing the Brewers. However, in this case, the steep price tag from the oddsmakers makes us more confident, and we are happy to lay the -150 on the moneyline.
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-138)
A 2-2 start after four games with the San Francisco Giants wasn’t what the Dodgers were hoping for, but a 2017 World Series rematch with the Houston Astros should surely have their attention. The Dodgers had the benefit of an off day yesterday to rest their taxed bullpen. In 2019, the club went 6-2 SU when they had a rest advantage over their opponent. Although it’s their fifth game of the season, Los Angeles will send their arguably their best pitcher, Walker Buehler, to the mound. Buehler went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA last year, and he was named to his first-ever All-Star team. In his lone appearance against Houston, Buehler got the win after allowing two runs with eight strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings.
Buehler’s counterpart, Framber Valdez, has not had such success early in his career. Though he has spent some of that time coming out of the bullpen, he is 4-5 with a 5.25 ERA in 13 career starts. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 games as a road favorite and 8-1 overall in their last nine games. As a result, we will happily take unusually short odds on the National League’s best team with their best pitcher on the mound.
Colorado-Oakland OVER 9.5 runs (-114)
All of the trends point to this game going under the total. The under is 14-3-1 in these teams’ last 18 meetings, and 3-0-1 in their last four meetings in Oakland. The Rockies only allowed five total runs in three games in their series in Texas. In addition, the A’s allowed fewer than three runs per game in their four-game series against the Angels.
So why am I picking the over? For one, I always believe in regression to the mean. Plus, given how the season started for both teams, the public should pound the under, and it’s always smart to fade the public. A closer look at the pitching matchup suggests that plenty of runs may be scored on Tuesday. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela was just 4-7 with a 7.29 ERA in road starts last season. He is primarily a fastball pitcher, which is not great against Oakland, as they were the league’s sixth-best fastball hitting team in 2019.
On the other side, Oakland starter Daniel Mendgen is a respectable 5-3 with a 2.78 ERA in nine interleague starts. That said, Oakland’s bullpen has me worried. A’s relievers threw 20 1/3 total innings in four games against the Angels. Assuming Mendgen will be on a short pitch count in his first start, a taxed Oakland bullpen should surrender some late runs in this one.
View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.