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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 8th (2021)

by September 8, 2021
Top 3 MLB Betting Picks Triston McKenzie

After the Chicago Cubs had their seven-game winning streak snapped last night, just one MLB team (Toronto Blue Jays) has an active winning streak longer than three games. Conversely, one of the teams tied for the longest active losing streak is the New York Yankees, who still have a two-game lead for the A.L.’s second wild card spot. Yes, the Cubs had the longest active winning streak, and the Yankees now have the longest active losing streak. This is yet another one of our habitual reminders that betting on baseball is awfully difficult. 

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 159-131-7 (+11.81 units) 

Cleveland Indians ML (-130)

The Cleveland Indians have struggled with the Minnesota Twins of late, losing six of their last seven head-to-head meetings. Not even the return of Aaron Civale to the starting rotation last night could help their losing ways against the Twins. However, we are getting tremendous value with the Indians tonight as they send Triston McKenzie (4-5, 4.62) to the mound. McKenzie is a budding star, as the rookie seems to be more comfortable with every start. He enters on a three-game winning streak and has pitched to a 3.07 ERA in his last seven starts. McKenzie was tagged for six runs in 3.1 innings in a home loss to the Twins on May 21. However, he allowed just two hits in that start and was instead undone by five walks. McKenzie has allowed more than one walk just once in his last nine starts, so we can be confident backing him tonight with his control issues in order.

Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan (0-1, 5.40), who allowed three earned runs in five innings in his Major League debut against the Cubs last Wednesday. This is Ryan’s first road start, and we are not convinced he has the mettle to win a game on the road against a divisional opponent just yet.

The Indians are 4-0 in McKenzie’s last four starts as a favorite, and the under is 4-0 in his previous four home starts. Those trends seem like a good recipe for another Indians victory tonight.

Miami Marlins ML (+105)

We backed the Marlins to beat the Mets in last night’s series opener and go back to the well tonight. While Miami could not get the job done with rookie Edward Cabrera on the mound last night, tonight’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, should inspire plenty of confidence.

Alcantara (8-13, 3.36) has been lights out at home this season, as his 2.34 home ERA is fourth-best among qualified starting pitchers and a .289 slugging percentage at home ranks second-best. Alcantara has thrown 87 fastballs at 100+ MPH since the start of last season, the eighth-most in the majors. His fastball is a big reason he has recorded six or more strikeouts in his previous five games. To put that in perspective, New York’s Gerrit Cole just had the longest active streak snapped at 11 such games last night.

Opposing the flame-thrower Alcantara is the soft-tossing veteran, Rich Hill. Hill (6-6, 3.92) has won just one start since June 5, despite having plenty of opportunities against poor teams like the Nationals and Orioles in that span. Hill has done an excellent job avoiding any “blow-up starts,” as he has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last 11 starts. However, he has allowed three earned runs five times in that span, and even that would be too much while opposing Alcantara.

The Marlins are 5-2 in their last seven home games against the Mets and are a great bet to get another win tonight.

Phillies-Brewers OVER 7.5 runs (-120)

When the Philadelphia Phillies brought over Kyle Gibson from the Texas Rangers, they expected him to be a solid No. 3 option behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. However, since joining the Phillies, he has been nothing like the pitcher that had a 1.98 ERA after 16 starts on July 2. In seven games with the Phillies (six starts), Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and has just 26 strikeouts to go along with 14 walks. The scariest part is that Gibson has produced those numbers despite facing the Pirates, Mets, Diamondbacks (twice), and Marlins in that span. All of those teams rank 23rd or worse in scoring.

A month ago, Brewers starter Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.70) was still very much in the mix for the NL Cy Young award. However, a two-week stint on the IL put a halt to his Cy Young considerations. In addition, Peralta struggled in his first game back from injury, getting lit up for four earned runs in just two innings in his last start against the Cardinals. Workload was always a concern for Peralta, as his 123.1 innings pitched this year are already 38 more than his previous career-high. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that can score in bunches, scoring seven or more runs in eight of their last 12 games.

The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee between these teams, and we should be in for another high-scoring contest.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks