The Major League Baseball trade deadline has come and gone. And as expected, a flurry of moves for relievers and a few trades for impact bats and starting pitchers were completed in the last 48 hours.
Following yesterday’s small three-game slate, we are back to a jampacked Friday schedule. Will any of MLB’s new-look teams make our best bet column?
Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Friday, August 1.
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Friday's Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+129) at Philadelphia Phillies (-157) | O/U 8.0 (-106/-114)
Prior to a mini 0-for-7 slump over the last two games, Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos had a five-game RBI streak. The fact that he has driven in at least one run in four of his last five home games makes this a great value play.
Castellanos has had great career success against Jack Flaherty, going 5-for-13 with a home run and a 1.159 OPS. Flaherty has also allowed an OBA 85 points higher on the road than at Comerica Park.
The Phillies have averaged more than five runs per game at home in July, and I expect Castellanos to be a big reason they stay hot to start this homestand.
Pick: Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 RBIs (+165)
Milwaukee Brewers (-157) at Washington Nationals (+128) | O/U 9.0 (-102/-119)
Milwaukee southpaw Jose Quintana just finished his third straight month with an ERA north of 4.00, and it is fair to wonder if the veteran would be in the team's rotation if the playoffs began today.
Quintana pitches to contact, as he has recorded just 55 strikeouts over 82.1 innings this year. That is significant because for as poor an offense as Washington's is, it actually ranks just outside the top 10 in BABIP (.294) against southpaws.
Washington is a respectable 4-2 in Mitchell Parker's last six starts, with two of those victories in that span coming against the 60-win San Diego Padres. Meanwhile, Milwaukee went just 2-2 in Quintana's four July starts, with each win coming by one run.
Thus, I would not put anyone off backing Washington's +1.5 runline odds (-127). Still, I am taking a flier that Milwaukee is in for a letdown after its massive three-game series with the Chicago Cubs. This becomes a more confident play if Milwaukee's best hitter, Jackson Chourio, misses a second consecutive game with a hamstring injury.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+128)
Houston Astros (-137) at Boston Red Sox (+112) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
Astros righty Hunter Brown began the season on fire with seven consecutive quality starts, and was consistently among the league's best pitchers in terms of ERA. However, something has been off with the righty of late, which is why we are backing Boston’s moneyline odds.
Brown is no longer the innings-eater he once was, as he has failed to pitch into the sixth inning in three straight starts after doing so in each of his first 18 starts. His velocity was down at least 0.5 mph in each of his four primary pitches in his last start, and his regression is the biggest reason for this upset pick.
Boston ranks in the top five in the Majors in ISO, OPS, and lowest strikeout rate in home games against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. I look for the Boston offense to again make Brown work, and for the Red Sox to take advantage of an Astros lineup that remains without several of its best bats, even if Houston added Carlos Correa at the trade deadline.
The Red Sox have lost each of their four series openers since the All-Star break, but have won six of their last seven home series and four of the last six series openers at Fenway Park. Let’s back Boston with our third of three plus-money plays today.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01