The landscape of the six MLB division races seems to be changing by the week, as the Milwaukee Brewers are opening up a comfortable lead in the NL Central, while the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are making late charges in the AL East and AL West, respectively. What will those standings look like by the end of what should be another exciting weekend?
We have a very heavy NL Central-themed trio of plays for today’s slate. Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Friday, August 8th.
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Friday's Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (-105) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
Pittsburgh has had its way with Cincinnati at home over the last three seasons, winning 16 of the last 21 meetings at PNC Park and holding the Reds to fewer than three runs per game over that span.
Cincinnati’s struggles should continue with righty Chase Burns making an unconventional start in this game, after his latest outing at the MLB Speedway Classic was cut to one inning because of rain. That is Burns' only work in the previous 12 days, and the only time he had a similar layoff, the light-hitting Washington Nationals lit him up for six runs over 5 2/3 innings after he hadn't pitched for 11 days.
The Reds have lost six straight Burns starts following his MLB debut, and these are great moneyline odds given Pittsburgh’s dominance of this divisional rivalry at home.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-115)
New York Mets (+104) at Milwaukee Brewers (-126) | O/U 7.5 (-119/-102)
While both of these teams are squarely in the mix for playoff spots in the National League, there is arguably not a bigger mismatch on Friday’s slate in terms of teams with opposite levels of momentum.
The Milwaukee Brewers have won six straight and 21 of their last 25 games. They have averaged 6.1 runs per game over that 25-game span, and own the best record in the majors since July 6.
Andrew Vaughn has been a huge catalyst for Milwaukee in the absence of Jackson Chourio. He enters this series amid a 12-game hitting streak, while .435 average with five home runs, 16 RBIs, and a .804 slugging percentage over that span.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets are amid a four-game losing streak after being swept (and nearly no-hit) at home by the Cleveland Guardians. The Mets have batted .180 as a team over the losing streak, which is a far cry from a Brewers offense that just tagged Atlanta Braves righty Spencer Strider for a career-worst 11 hits.
These odds are less inflated than they normally would be with the Mets sending Kodai Senga to the mound. Even though New York has won eight straight games started by Senga, I cannot go against the Brewers at this point.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-126)
Chicago Cubs (-150) at St. Louis Cardinals (+123) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-119)
The Fourth of July holiday was around the time the tide starting turning in the NL Central, as the Milwaukee Brewers have been eight games better than the Cubs since then. But Chicago has not played poor baseball in that stretch, going .500 (13-13) with one constant being southpaw Matthew Boyd. His success against St. Louis is why I am eschewing the Cubs’ relatively steep moneyline odds in favor of him recording the win for better value.
Boyd's 1.55 ERA since May 24 is the second-lowest of any pitcher in baseball (min. 60 IP), even lower than both current Cy Young Award favorites in each league (Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal).
Boyd's career year to this point has been buoyed by two solid starts (both wins) against St. Louis, in which he has thrown 11 scoreless innings and pitched to a 12:1 K:BB ratio.
The southpaw should get plenty of run support, as Chicago roughed up Cardinals righty Michael McGreevy for five runs over 4 2/3 innings in a late-June game at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs will be the second team McGreevy is facing for the second time. He did not improve at all between two starts against the San Diego Padres, allowing a combined 11 earned runs on 16 hits over 10 2/3 innings.
Look for Chicago to jump on McGreevy early, paving the way for Boyd to win his 12th game.
Pick: Matthew Boyd to record the win (+115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01