The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox were the only two Major League Baseball teams that entered Sunday with four-game winning streaks, but both were snapped in their series finales.
Surprisingly, the only team that has an active winning streak of more than two games is the Colorado Rockies, who completed a home sweep of the Texas Rangers this weekend. Can they continue that on the road today against the San Diego Padres?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, May 13.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (+140) @ Baltimore Orioles (-166) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The Baltimore Orioles lead the division by a half-game entering this series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays, and they have to feel good about their chances of opening up a bigger lead, as they have won or split 17 consecutive series against AL East opponents.
The Orioles are hefty favorites in this opening game between two aces. While Jose Berrios had led the league in ERA entering his last start, we do not expect him to get over the mental hurdle of allowing eight runs in his last start to the Philadelphia Phillies. The eight earned runs were more than Berrios had allowed in his first seven starts combined (seven), and it is telling that the Blue Jays are such big underdogs in this game, considering Berrios is 10-1 in 14 career starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles were 1-1 in Berrios’ two starts against them last year, but they did well and put the ball in play, as the righty’s 5.9 K/9 in those two starts was well below his season average. We also expect Orioles ace Corbin Burnes to dominate a Blue Jays lineup that entered their last series batting an AL-worst .199 with runners in scoring position.
Baltimore is 5-1 against AL East opponents this season, while Toronto is 12-15 against teams over .500, so we are maximizing value by opting for the runline instead of the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+126)
Washington Nationals (-126) @ Chicago White Sox (+108) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Are the Chicago White Sox finally getting things going this season? They have won two of their last three series, including taking three of four games from the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, and have allowed three or fewer runs in five of their last eight games.
Chicago has a path to offensive success against Washington Nationals righty Trevor Williams, whose 1.96 ERA seems like a mirage given how some of his numbers are trending. Williams is on pace to have his hard-hit rate and walk rate rise for the third consecutive season, and both are on pace to be the worst of his career. He generates whiffs on just 17.1% of his fastballs, a pitch he throws over 36% of the time, which is likely because his average fastball velocity ranks in the second percentile.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s Chris Flexen’s hard-hit rate, strikeout rate and ERA have all improved from last season, and his xBA is down 40 points from .297 to .257. The White Sox have won two of Flexen’s last three starts, and the one they lost could not be pinned on him, as he allowed two earned runs over five innings and departed with a 4-2 lead. The White Sox may be 12-29 on the season, but they are 6-6 against teams with a losing record, and there is value on them as plus-money underdogs in this series opener.
MLB Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+108)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) @ San Francisco Giants (+152) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Dodgers-Giants rivalry is one of the two best rivalries in Major League Baseball, right up there with the Yankees and Red Sox. And this series opener has extra pizazz with Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting his first crack at the NL West rivals.
San Francisco’s offense was ravaged by injuries over the weekend, as Michael Conforto landed on the 10-day IL with a strained hamstring, and Jung Hoo Lee left yesterday’s game with an arm injury after crashing into the outfield wall. The Giants now have very little depth in the outfield, especially with Austin Slater missing Sunday’s game due to concussion symptoms. The team will miss Lee’s ability to get on base and Conforto’s power, as he leads the team in home runs (seven) and slugging (.490).
Los Angeles lost four of Yamamoto’s first five starts, but he has been lights out since, leading the team to three consecutive victories as they outscored opponents 18-3 in that stretch. Yamamoto has struck out at least five batters in seven straight outings. He has also done a much better job of keeping the ball on the ground, inducing 24 ground balls to 17 fly balls in May, following an April with 19 ground balls to 36 fly balls.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was great again:
8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 K, 0 BB, 32 CSW%
Yoshi's ERA is down to 2.79 and since his rough debut in Korea, he's allowed 8 runs in 41 IP good for a 1.76 ERA in that stretch. Yamamania is here.
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) May 8, 2024
San Francisco’s team total Under is 55-30 in its last 85 games (+22.17 units/22% ROI), making it worth the investment at plus-money odds, even at such a low number.
MLB Pick: Giants Team Total Under 2.5 (+126)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.