We had our own version of Fourth of July fireworks, as we went 4-0 on our four plays in our last article on Friday. We hope to again find the right balance of player props and full game bets to start another week off on a positive note. Read on for our top MLB picks and predictions for Monday, July 7.
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Monday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins (+118) at Cincinnati Redd (-143) | O/U 9.0 (-116/-104)
Cincinnati Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz has been one of the hottest hitters in the Majors of late. He has recorded two or more hits in 12 of his last 24 games, while raising his batting average 21 points in that span.
He does not have any extra-base hits in his last 11 games, but his previous longest drought without an extra-base hit this season was six games, so positive regression should be coming. However, he could just as easily go over this projected total with another multi-hit day, which is possible when facing Marlins righty Janson Junk. Junk has a 5.40 ERA and .329 OBA on the road this season, and left-handed hitters are slashing .318/.329/.455 against him compared to a .241/.238/.278 slash line from right-handed batter.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Cleveland Guardians (+134) at Houston Astros (-164) | O/U 7.5 (-101/-120)
The Cleveland Guardians entered Sunday amid their first nine-game losing streak since 2021. Their subsequent 7-2 loss in the series finale to the Tigers was their 10th straight loss, and they have been shut out five times during that span. Cleveland is now an MLB-worst 7-21 since June 5, and it has lost 21-of-28 for the first time since 2012.
Houston’s moneyline odds are just steep enough to have me passing on that number, but I instead believe there is value in the Under given Cleveland’s offensive struggles.
Astros lefty Colton Gordon allowed a .374 xwOBA and .235 ISO to his first 159 right-handed batters. Prior to his last outing, he had improved those numbers to .367 and .193 respectively over his next 88 righties faced, which suggests he was getting more comfortable in the big leagues.
The Under is 9-1 in Cleveland’s last 10 road games, and it should again be the right side of the total tonight.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+113) at San Diego Padres (-137) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks do not have Ryne Nelson toeing the rubber today, and that should mean great things for the San Diego Padres offense.
Since June 13, Nelson has pitched to a 1.53 ERA over 29.1 innings while allowing a .480 opponents’ OPS. Entering yesterday, during that same span, the rest of the team’s starters combined for a 5.28 ERA over 87 innings, and an .848 opponents’ OPS.
Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen is unbeaten in five career starts at Petco Park, but he has not made a start there since 2023, and almost all of his numbers have declined considerably since then. San Diego has scored five or more runs in six of its last 12 home games, and I expect it to do so again tonight.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01