I’ve gone 5-1 with my last six MLB best bets spanning my last two columns, and am excited to bring that momentum into the start of this week after scouring the data from this 13-game slate.
Read on for our top MLB picks and bets for Monday, August 25th.
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Monday's Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+149) at Milwaukee Brewers (-183) | O/U 8.0 (-116/-105)
Diamondbacks slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. entered yesterday with a nine-game hitting streak, batting .333 with 17 RBI in that span. With another RBI in yesterday’s series finale, he now has a career-best five-game active RBI streak. His 29 RBI in August are the most in the Majors, and I am backing him to keep his RBI streak going.
Arizona’s lineup as a whole has been hot, like when it tagged Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott for a career-high seven runs on Saturday after he had pitched to a 2.36 ERA in his previous 12 starts.
As long as Gurriel is hitting behind Geraldo Perdomo, he has a chance to drive in runs. Perdomo entered Sunday with an MLB-best .490 on-base percentage (OBP) among players with a minimum of 50 plate appearances since July 30th. He has hit safely in 19 out of 22 games in that span.
Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+170)
Detroit Tigers (-219) at Athletics (+177) | O/U 9.0 (-103/-118)
Detroit’s five-game winning streak was snapped yesterday, but it has still won 18 of its last 26. It owns a +42 run differential and hit 39 home runs in that span. Because of its recent dominance, I am backing its run line to return maximum value tonight.
The Athletics certainly have some exciting young players in their lineup. Nick Kurtz ranks first among all rookies (minimum 100 plate appearances) in batting average, extra-base hits, home runs, RBI and OPS. Entering Sunday, Shea Langeliers led the Majors with 26 extra-base hits while batting .336 with 30 RBI and a .769 slugging rate since the All-Star break.
But no one neutralizes an offense's biggest strengths like Tarik Skubal. Skubal bounced back in his last start from a semi-rough patch where he allowed more than two earned runs in three consecutive starts for the first time over the last two seasons. He was dominant over seven scoreless innings against the Houston Astros, allowing three hits and striking out 10.
Lately, it doesn't matter what starting pitcher Detroit is facing. The Tigers’ offense has scored seven or more runs in six of their last nine games and should provide plenty of run support for the Cy Young favorite.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-136)
Cincinnati Reds (+119) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-116)
Following a 10-week injured list (IL) stint, Hunter Greene has looked in perfect midseason form. He has pitched to a 2.19 ERA in back-to-back quality starts, one of which came against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies. More importantly, Cincinnati won both of those starts and has a +10 run differential in Greene's last three outings, which is why it is a live underdog.
The Dodgers tied a season-low with two hits in Saturday's loss to the San Diego Padres. Some may give Los Angeles a pass for its poor offensive effort in the Padres series (San Diego's starters combined for three earned runs in 18 innings), given that San Diego had pitched to a 2.29 ERA and .171 opponents’ batting average from August 10th to August 23rd. But the hard-throwing Greene is exactly the type of pitcher who should add to the Dodgers' offensive woes.
Los Angeles has covered the run line in fewer than 40% of its games as home favorites, and is just 49-46 overall in non-division games. It should not be this big of a favorite against a potential National League playoff team with its ace on the mound.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+119)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01