Wednesday’s full 15-game Major League Baseball slate offers the perfect blend of afternoon baseball and evening games, with four of the matchups having the first pitch scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET or earlier. Our first MLB best bet for the day comes directly from the Milwaukee Brewers versus Texas Rangers matchup that kicks off the day on national television on MLB Network, so be sure to get your bets in early.
Read on for my top MLB picks & predictions for Wednesday, September 10th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers (-142) at Texas Rangers (+116) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-116)
After having its three-game winning streak snapped in the series opener, Milwaukee is still in search of its 90th win, which would mark the first time in franchise history of three consecutive 90-win seasons. But as dominant as Milwaukee has been (3.5 games ahead for the best record in the league), Texas will be no pushover with Merrill Kelly on the mound, which is why I am backing the under in this afternoon tilt.
Brewers righty Freddy Peralta is the first pitcher in the modern era to have five consecutive appearances of five-plus scoreless innings while allowing three or fewer hits in each. He has extended a dominant August, where he recorded a 0.32 ERA, earning National League August Pitcher of the Month honors.
Peralta brings his 29 consecutive scoreless innings streak into a matchup against Kelly, who has pitched to a 2.98 ERA in seven starts with the Rangers. Kelly has made five consecutive quality starts, and faces a Brewers lineup with an ailing Christian Yelich, who just played his first game since September 1st as he recovers from a back injury.
The Rangers are the seventh-most profitable team to the under this season, so I am comfortable backing that side of the total even at this low number.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-116)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-156) at Baltimore Orioles (+128) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-119)
For a while, it was questionable whether or not Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes would continue to warrant being the unanimous favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award if he were not even a .500 pitcher. However, Skenes has gone on a winning streak lately, moving to 10-9, and leading his team to four consecutive victories, winning three of those starts himself.
The schedule has been no joke of late, as Skenes led the team to wins over first-place teams in the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers, as well as a Boston Red Sox team that looks well on its way to securing an American League Wild Card spot, at least.
The fact that the Pirates have given Skenes an average of 4.5 runs of support per game in this four-game stretch is massive for a pitcher who is the only one in the league (among those with a minimum of 25 starts) to have a sub-2.00 ERA since July 1st of last season (1.95).
I am mitigating Pittsburgh’s steep Moneyline odds by backing Skenes to earn the victory, as I trust a Pirates offense that entered this series ranked in the top five in walk rate and the top half of the league in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in road games since August 15th to provide him with enough run support again.
Pick: Paul Skenes to Record the Win (+125)
New York Mets (+144) at Philadelphia Phillies (-176) | O/U 7.5 (-116/-105)
This wager is less a reaction to the two teams playing to a 1-0 pitcher’s duel in Monday’s series opener and more about the fact that I remain seriously worried about the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense as long as Trea Turner and Alec Bohm remain on the injured list (IL).
The New York Mets forced Cristopher Sanchez into his worst start of the season when they faced him on August 25th, as Sanchez allowed a season-high six earned runs. It was also his only start in the last 17 where he did not complete at least six innings.
Fellow starter Aaron Nola also came into the series opener with troubling career numbers against the Mets, and made the necessary adjustments. In blanking the Mets over six innings of work, Nola upped his fastball usage to 55% and change-up usage to 22%, whereas he threw those pitches at 47% and 14% clips over his previous 14 starts.
I have faith in the Phillies’ coaching staff to look at Sanchez’s tape from his last start against the Mets to come up with a completely different game plan, while Clay Holmes matches zeros for New York against an injury-riddled Phillies lineup.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01