Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. The All-Star break is in the rearview mirror, and playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We wobble back and forth between green and red on the year, but with the number of plus-money bets hit, it's still been a solid season. Be sure to check out my MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Anyways, here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, July 17th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 24-24
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
One of the most surprising teams of the year so far has been the Miami Marlins. If the season ended at the All-Star break, they'd make the playoffs with a 52-45 record. Since June 15th, Miami ranks fourth in run production and has a top-10 pitching unit with a 3.87 team ERA. Not bad.
Of course, Milwaukee has been solid as well, but not indestructible. Logan Henderson gets the nod for Milwaukee, and he only has six starts under his belt this season. He allowed three runs in 5.1 innings last time out against St. Louis. On the other side, Sandy Alcantara hasn't been amazing, but his numbers against the Brewers are eye-popping.
Against the projected starting lineup of the Brewers, Alcantara has just allowed a .460 OPS with an 18% strikeout rate. For whatever reason, Milwaukee struggles to hit the Marlins starter. Assuming the bullpen is rested and can hold a lead, however small, I love the value you're getting for the Marlins to take down this game in Milwaukee.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+133 at Kalshi)
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Another surprising team this season has been the Chicago White Sox. If you told me at the beginning of the year that the White Sox would lead their division at the All-Star break, I would have called you crazy. But here we are.
Since June 15th, the White Sox have owned the fourth-best bullpen record. They have also scored the ninth-most runs, and despite some recent offensive woes, they are still finding ways to win. Anthony Kay starts for Chicago, and he owns a 2.84 ERA across his last four starts.
Kay has also been solid against the Blue Jays, with the projected opposing lineup managing just a .521 OPS off him. While it is only a 15-at-bat sample size, it's still a good sign for the away team here. Spencer Miles will start (open) for the Blue Jays. Lefties have performed better against him, and the White Sox have plenty of them.
Toronto's bullpen has also taken a step back as a bottom-half unit across the month of July. Simply put, this is another game where I like the value on the underdogs, and I'll be riding with the White Sox on the Moneyline.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+122 at Kalshi)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Finally, tonight we're ending with a player prop. Jordan Walker has been pretty sick for the Cardinals with a .294 batting average, 22 home runs and 74 RBIs. But tonight, I'm fading him. He has worse splits against righties and on the road, and after striking out in the All-Star Game, he's due to cool off.
Merrill Kelly goes for Arizona, and Walker has gone just 1-for-10 against the Diamondbacks starter lifetime. I expect Kelly to get it done, and the Arizona bullpen, which has been a top-10 unit over the last month of play, should hold serve as well, keeping Walker and Co. off the bases enough for this prop to hit the under.
Pick: Jordan Walker Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-104 at Novig)
