It was “easy come, easy go” for my profits with regard to my MLB picks last week, as I followed up a perfect 3-0 week with a 0-3 clunker. At the very least, I can find solace (and humor) in that fact that my MLB Best Bets have been highly profitable from a three-leg parlay standpoint whether one chooses to tail or fade my analysis.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, May 9th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 8-10 (-2.01 units)
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
From 2023-25, the White Sox were the worst team in baseball with 324 losses as well as the second-worst run differential (minus-601). But Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami has seemed to reinvigorate the offense and the fan base, as he jumped out to a torrid 37-game start with 14 home runs, 28 RBIs, and a .934 OPS.
Chicago’s power, with two other sluggers chipping in at least seven home runs, is a great recipe to take advantage of a diminishing Luis Castillo.
Though Castillo finished 2025 with a 3.54 ERA, he turned in career-worsts in whiff, strikeout, and barrel rate. Those three metrics are all worsening this year, and Castillo’s arm strength in his 33-year-old season has to be a concern after logging over 1,300 innings from 2018-25.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+119)
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets recently turned in their second three-game winning streak of the season, but I'm not buying a New York resurgence considering it stockpiled wins against the lowly Angels and Rockies.
Merrill Kelly's 9.95 ERA is the highest of any starting pitcher toeing the rubber today. While that has contributed to three consecutive losses and the team being outscored 32-11 in that span, two of those losses came against the three-time NL champion Brewers and the Cubs, a team amid an historic home winning streak at Wrigley Field.
Arizona lost three straight Kelly starts twice last year, and rebounded both times to avoid four-game losing streaks, winning both games by a combined 10-1.
I'm taking a glass half-full approach on Kelly when facing a Mets lineup that ranks 27th in BABIP and 29th in wRC+ and wOBA. Arizona has also taken care of business against teams with losing records, going 12-6 in that split.
Even if Kelly struggles, I expect a Diamondbacks offense that ranks sixth in ISO, eighth in slugging, and 12th in wRC+ in home games this season to have his back.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+100)
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
After a disastrous first two outings where he was tagged for 13 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings, Dustin May has rebounded with four quality starts over his last five outings, while pitching to a 2.45 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB ratio.
May has a respectable 3.38 ERA in eight career appearances (five starts) at Petco Park, while his 1.01 WHIP there is his third-lowest at any visiting ballpark where he has appeared at least twice.
Since April 28th up to yesterday, San Diego ranked dead-last in BABIP and 27th in wRC+ amid a 3-6 stretch.
May has allowed just a .360 slugging percentage to right-handed batters, meaning he has a great chance of neutralizing Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., among others. And since May’s counterpart, Randy Vasquez, has a 4.35 home ERA compared to a 1.93 road ERA this season, that made the difference for me between backing the full game Under and San Diego’s team total Under.
Pick: Padres Team Total Under 3.5 (+114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.