There are nine MLB games played on Thursday, beginning with the Pirates and Phillies at 12:35 p.m. ET. Below, I explain why I expect the Tigers and Rangers to combine for plenty of runs, why the Padres' nightmarish offensive struggles will continue and why the Rays should keep their winning streak alive against the Royals. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, July 2nd.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
The Tigers and Rangers both rank in the bottom 10 in runs scored, but I expect this to be a high-scoring game. The Tigers are hot right now, scoring at least five runs in six consecutive games. And while the Rangers haven't been as good offensively, they've still scored at least four runs in six of their last seven games.
Additionally, I don't really like what either of the starting pitchers has done this season. Tigers starter Framber Valdez enters this game with a 4.05 ERA and at least four earned runs allowed in five of his last 10 starts.
Then, there is Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers starter is coming off one of his better starts in some time, not allowing a single run against the Blue Jays over seven innings. However, he's allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. With how the Tigers are playing offensively, I think they'll reach and surpass that threshold.
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-104)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
When Roki Sasaki started against the Padres on June 26th, he allowed three hits and three earned runs in just four innings. The Dodgers ultimately lost that game 7-1. However, despite Sasaki allowing at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts, I'm fading the Padres in this game.
Though Sasaki has struggled of late, he's had some solid starts as well, allowing two or fewer runs in four of his last seven starts. Additionally, teams have finished with three or fewer runs in four of his last nine starts.
The Padres are the lowest-scoring team in baseball, with just 613 runs through 84 games. They've scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five games. After a 20-run loss yesterday, I expect them to struggle to get back on the right track against the team with the best record in baseball.
Pick: Padres Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-118)
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
The Rays are the hottest team in baseball, winning seven consecutive games entering tonight's contest. They have had no trouble with the Royals in this series so far, winning each of the first two games by at least four runs. Every win during this seven-game streak has been by multiple runs.
Tonight, the Rays put their hot lineup against Stephen Kolek, a pitcher who allowed nine hits, nine earned runs and three home runs in his last start. While Kolek has been excellent at times this season, he's been wildly inconsistent, allowing four earned runs or more in three of his last seven starts.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+136)
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