Eighteen Major League Baseball teams are in action on Thursday, but one I will not be backing with my MLB home run props is the Atlanta Braves, who have hit just one home run in their last five games. Instead, I am looking at the red-hot Miami Marlins and two former National League All-Stars.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, July 2nd.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Bryce Harper (+269)
Bryce Harper entered yesterday’s game amid a six-game RBI streak. His hot streak went back even further, as he batted .432 with eight extra-base hits (five home runs) and 14 RBI in his previous 11 games.
The Phillies’ offense is surviving just fine, being carried by the trio of Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. Entering this series, those three combined to bat .284, with 61 home runs, a .912 OPS, a 148 wRC+ and a 6.2 fWAR. The rest of the Phillies’ position players to that point were batting .214, with 48 home runs, a .604 OPS, a 66 wRC+ and a combined 0.2 fWAR.
Marsh is the only one of those three that has homered in their career off of Pirates righty Jared Jones, but I’m still backing Harper to go yard, even if he is hitless in three at-bats in that split.
Owen Caissie (+335)
I felt compelled to back a Miami Marlins slugger while they’re playing in Coors Field, especially coming off their historic month of June.
Miami went 20-6 in June, MLB’s best mark, marking its second 20-win month in franchise history (it went 21-8 in May 2012). It was also the first team to enter a calendar month at least eight games under .500 (26-34) and leave at least six games over .500 (46-40).
Owen Caissie is a big reason the team totaled a collective .798 OPS in June (fifth-best). He is one of two Marlins sluggers with at least 10 home runs off right-handed pitching.
Caissie has a great chance to add to his home run total when facing Michael Lorenzen, who has pitched to an 8.20 ERA and .364 opponents’ batting average at home this season. He has allowed a .380/.426/.670 slash line to left-handed batters, and his 1.43 HR/9 rate ranks near the bottom 20 of all pitchers (minimum 80 innings).
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+417)
In the last series against the Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr. turned in his first multi-home-run game since April 2025. Entering yesterday, he was also in the midst of a 23-game on-base streak, which tied his career high set in 2025. Over that span, he had 12 extra-base hits, after totaling just nine extra-base hits in his first 60 games.
Fernando Tatis Jr. might have turned a corner.
In June, Tatis hit 4 HR, has a .318 BA & .509 SLG, put up a 142 wrc+ and is putting up a 59.3% Hard-Hit% and 14.3% Barrel%.
He does this while swinging less, walking less and pulling the ball more.pic.twitter.com/azeHwnvalz
— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) July 1, 2026
Tatis is 1-for-3 in a small sample size against Roki Sasaki, who has allowed four home runs in his last three starts. Sasaki has as many games with multiple home runs allowed as games without allowing a home run (three) since the beginning of April. I am backing Tatis to ensure himself a home run in three of his last four series.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.