The entire MLB slate consists of 16 games. That means we’ve got 32 starting pitchers and 288 batters in starting lineups to look at!
Below, I’ve added my favorite three prop bets for today’s MLB slate.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112)
It’s hard to find many batters hitting more consistently against lefties than Zach Neto.
The Angels right-hander has smashed a .385 ISO and wOBA of .637 with 6.7% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month. Neto has also hit 33.3% of fly balls against lefties and has added 50% of hard contact with a 16.7% barrel percentage over the last 30 days.
Tonight, he’ll take on Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Parker is a left-handed pitcher who has watched his last 54 righties slug a .227 ISO and wOBA of .384. Parker has also allowed his last 54 righties to hit 37.1% of line drives while inducing 31.4% of ground balls. In addition, he’s also allowed 54.3% of hard contact to righties over the last 30 days and has averaged just 7.2% of swinging strikes.
I like Neto to rip a couple of balls against Parker tonight.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-158)
Aaron Judge has hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .410 against lefties over the last 30 days. He’s a right-handed slugger with a very high strikeout rate against lefties.
However, he’ll go up against Cody Bradford of the Rangers, who has allowed a .692 ISO and wOBA of .631 to his last 15 righties. It’s not the biggest sample size, but these are still wild numbers that we need to attack. Bradford has allowed those same 15 righties to hit 70% of hard contact and 50% of fly balls. He’s also induced only 30% of ground balls.
As long as Judge doesn’t strike out and connects, he’s got all the potential in the world to hit a homer tonight.
Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Over the last month, Miami’s Jake Burger has smashed a .567 ISO and wOBA of .457 against his last 32 lefties. He’s hit 52.2% of fly balls and rarely hits ground balls against lefties. Beyond that, Burger has added 65.2% of hard contact and a 21.7% barrel percentage against lefties over the last month.
He’ll face off against Martin Perez of the Padres. The left-handed veteran has allowed his last 65 righties to hit a .286 ISO and wOBA of .408. Perez has allowed 33.3% of fly balls and nearly 43% of hard contact to righties over the last 30 days. He’s also struck them just 21.5% of the time in the previous month.
Take a shot with Burger. He’s been an extra-base machine against lefties.
