The Stanley Cup playoffs resume on Wednesday, and we have three more pivotal matchups on the schedule. The Flyers will take their third crack at trying to close out the pesky Penguins, while the Canadiens-Lightning and Mammoth-Golden Knights series change locations for massive Game 5s. We're coming off a profitable 2-1 betting night with our NHL picks, and I'm looking to stay hot and navigate us through tonight's three-game board. Let's dive into my top NHL bets for Wednesday, April 29th.
Wednesday's Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Montreal Canadiens (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-170) | O/U 5.5 (-120/+100)
Brandon Hagel was the hero for the Lightning (2-2) in Sunday's road win over the Canadiens (2-2), netting the final two goals in the 3-2 affair. The Atlantic Division foes are back at it this evening, and puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.
I'll be on the under at even money tonight. The three latest games in this series have all finished 3-2, and two of those contests have needed an extra frame to find a fifth goal. For as high-powered as these offenses are, both teams have been playing low-scoring games recently. The under is 11-5 in Montreal's last 16 games, while going 4-1 in Tampa's last five games. It's 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between the divisional opponents.
Furthermore, neither offense has been able to find much space during 5-on-5 play in the playoffs. So far, the Canadiens and Lightning are tied for last in expected goals per 60 minutes (1.66) during even-strength play. The teams are 16th (three) and 14th (five) in 5-on-5 high-danger shots on goal, respectively, through four games. If they can avoid conceding penalties to each other, then we should be looking at another low-scoring contest. Give me the under.
Bet: Under 5.5 Goals (+100)
Pittsburgh Penguins (-102) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-118) | O/U 5.5 (-120/+100)
Don't look now, but the Penguins (2-3) have staved off elimination in consecutive games, forcing another do-or-die contest with the Flyers (3-2) tonight. Pittsburgh is now down to +240 odds to complete the comeback and advance to the next round. Philadelphia is -300 to advance. Game 6 is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.
I'll back the Flyers to close out this series on Wednesday night. Philadelphia has been competitive in both Games 3 and 4, but a tough bounce didn't go their way on Monday, ultimately leading to them losing the contest 3-2. They're still on an absolute heater, having won nine of their last 12 games. They'll host a Penguins squad that's just 2-6 straight up (SU) in its last eight outings.
Ultimately, this play comes down to the home-ice advantage and the goaltending edge that the Flyers have. They'll turn to Dan Vladar once again. He's coming off a regular season where he ranked third in GAA (2.42) and 16th in SV% (.906).
So far in the postseason, those numbers have improved to 2.03 and .913 through five games. Vladar is much more stable than whatever the Penguins have to offer in between the pipes. Let's take the Flyers as slim favorites.
Bet: Flyers Moneyline (-120)
Utah Mammoth (+140) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-165) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-165)
The evening wraps up in Sin City, as the Golden Knights (2-2) return home to take on the Mammoth (2-2) after an epic, back-and-forth 5-4 win for Vegas on Monday night. Game 5 gets underway at 10:00 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
I'll be laying the juice and riding with the Golden Knights on Wednesday night. This is where we'll see the veteran experience start to favor Vegas. They have better top-end talent on the ice, a more experienced head coach and a home-ice edge. Speaking of home ice, Vegas has gone 35-22 SU (61.4%) in home playoff games since its inception. T-Mobile Arena really is a fortress for this squad.
Statistically, the series has been tight. However, the Golden Knights have a decent advantage in Corsi percentage (54.26% vs. 45.74%) and xGoals% (51.85% vs. 48.15%). They've been dominating under head coach John Tortorella, going 9-3 SU since he joined the club. Even though it's a bit pricey, I do think it's worth playing Vegas in this spot.
Bet: Golden Knights Moneyline (-165)
