As we embark on the last month of regular season MLB betting, it is important to take time and reflect on how far we have come. Since late July when the season started, our winning percentage is 55.7% and we are +17.86 units on the year. In layman’s terms, bettors who wagered $100 on all of our picks would be up $1786. While that not may seem like a lot considering we have been at this for six weeks, it is important to keep a realistic mindset.
In the world of sports betting, hitting picks at a 55.7% clip is seen as very successful. However, the most important takeaway from these numbers is the fact that our calculations for profits was based on consistent individual $100 wagers. Those bettors who are looking for a bigger payday and instant huge bankroll are the ones that get into the most trouble. While we are cashing 55.7% of our bets, that means we are losing 44.3% of them. Thus, if one decides to hammer a certain play more than another there is a good chance of that play losing and drastically minimizing one’s potential returns. Have faith that in the long run you will come out on top, but also the discipline to stay with the same monetary bets week to week. Your bankroll will be plentiful at season’s end if you do.
With that sports betting lesson behind us, we forge on with my MLB top betting plays for Saturday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 64-51-2 (+17.86 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Marlins-Rays UNDER 7.5 runs (-109)
This total seems awfully low, and with good reason as a number of trends support a low-scoring game. The under is 6-2 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games overall. In addition, the Marlins have trouble with left-handed starters, as the under is 6-1 in their last seven games when facing a lefty. In particular, Tampa Bay’s lefty Blake Snell has had tremendous success against the Marlins in his career. Current Miami players have just two extra base-hits in 25 plate appearances against Snell in his career.
Tampa Bay has shutout Miami twice in the four games they have played thus far, and a lack of runs seems imminent again.
Royals Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-109)
White Sox ace Lucas Giolito toes the rubber against a division rival just one start removed from the season’s only no-hitter. Current Royals are batting .181 with a .377 slugging percentage in 151 career plate appearances against Giolito. He has allowed two earned runs of less in six of his last seven starts.
One always worries that familiarity with division opponents tends to favor the hitters over the course of a season as they more accustomed to a pitcher’s arsenal. However, Giolito has made eight starts this year and none have come against the Royals. Therefore, we like Giolito’s chances to get through the order at least three times relatively unscathed and for the Royals to have a difficult time plating runs.
Pirates ML/Over 9 runs (+275)
Current Pirates should be excited about seeing Cincinnati Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani on Saturday. Collectively they are hitting .387 and slugging .763 off him in his career. Built into these numbers are a combined nine home runs and eight doubles in 103 PA appearances. The Pirates are the worst team in baseball, yet have moneyline odds of +110 which suggests oddsmakers actually like their chances. The two teams split a doubleheader yesterday, which means tired arms in the bullpen should help our case for the over.
The Reds are 1-7 in their last eight Saturday night games as road favorites against divisional opponents. Plus, the over is 6-0 in Pittsburgh’s last six night games against the NL Central. Thus, we will take the Pirates’ chances of winning and added value with a moneyline/total parlay.
Atlanta Braves -2.5 runs (+125)
This game between the Braves and Nationals has blowout written all over it as there are not many bigger pitching mismatches on the board. Washington’s Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.71 ERA) faces Atlanta’s Max Fried (6-0, 1.60 ERA). Fedde has had trouble putting away hitters as he has one strikeout or less in five of seven starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. is back with a vengeance after hitting three home runs in yesterday’s doubleheader. In addition, the Braves are hitting .429 and slugging .857 combined in their careers off Fedde. Thus, we resort to an alternate runline for more value than the standard -1.5 runs would have provided.
Gerritt Cole OVER # of Strikeouts (Odds not yet posted)
Yankee Nation is uneasy about Gerritt Cole’s last few starts. He has allowed nine earned runs in his last ten innings and a combined seven home runs over his last three starts. Oddly enough, his numbers through eight starts are better than last year’s pace when he finished second in the Cy Young voting.
Cole has at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts. Given that the Yankees are coming off a doubleheader where they played 16 innings yesterday, manager Aaron Boone is likely to want to save an overused bullpen and under-performing as much as possible. Cole totaled seven strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings in his second start of the season against the Orioles. Now that his arm strength is more built up, he is likelier to go even deeper in this game and give his team the length they need. I would play this prop all the way up to over 9.5 strikeouts.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.