On Friday, our plays went 1-2 with only Iona +4.5 hitting. Thankfully, sports betting is a long game and we’re up in profit since starting these articles.
Today starts the third week of the college basketball season. I’ve already come away with plenty of interesting takeaways so far this year and that will continue throughout the season. The playing field in college basketball is better than it’s ever been, which is exciting for the sport. We’ve seen so many teams win buy games against high major opponents, which is truly special for the mid-major level teams.
Here are my top three plays for today.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
Belmont Bruins vs LSU Tigers: LSU -5.5 (-110)
(8:00 PM ET tip)
The LSU Tigers have been destroying this season. There’s no longer Cam Thomas, Trendon Watford, or Javonte Smart. This team is playing more together as a team and doesn’t need isolation to score points. LSU is currently 4-0 with massive wins over every single opponent this year. I’m not even sure Belmont is their toughest opponent to date. LSU had to play Liberty and Texas State earlier this year and won by double digits as well.
So with that, I’m seeing a -5.5 for LSU, at home, against an underwhelming Belmont team to start the season. Belmont took a 12-point loss to Ohio and needed overtime to beat Furman. Those are two really quality teams but let’s face it, LSU is an SEC opponent in comparison to a top-tier mid-major opponent.
The Tigers have dominated on the offensive glass and are shooting 39.8 percent from three. Meanwhile, Belmont is allowing opponents to shoot 36.4 percent from long range on the year. The Tigers will have plenty of success shooting the ball in this game and have actually defended so much better in comparison to last year. Give me LSU!
UMKC vs Idaho State: UMKC -1 (-110)
(9:00 PM ET tip)
This is a pure mismatch and I just don’t understand how UMKC could be nearly a pick-em in this game. UMKC already knocked off Missouri, 80-66 to start the season, and have played Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri to start their season. They’ve been battled tested and now they’ll take on a much worse Idaho State team.
Idaho State is shooting a 45.3 percent effective field goal percentage with 23.3 percent turnovers per game. They’ve struggled on the glass and while UMKC hasn’t been fierce on the glass either, going up against Idaho State will help their case in comparison to those big-time teams.
Idaho State is also shooting 27.1 percent from long range in comparison to UMKC’s 36.5 percent from long range. Neither team is getting to the line often but you’d have to imagine UMKC finds the line more frequently in this game in comparison to their others.
Wyoming vs Grand Canyon: Wyoming +4.5 (-110)
(9:00 PM ET tip)
Wyoming is already coming off a win against Washington, 77-72 in overtime, on the road. They’re 3-0 with two other wins against Detroit Mercy and Arkansas Pine Bluff and held both of those teams to under 50 points. The defense has been sensational and ranks third in the entire league in defensive effective field goal percentage.
Grand Canyon, on the other hand, is shooting nearly 48 percent from three and grabbing over 44 percent of offensive rebounds. The level of competition that Grand Canyon has played is questionable. It’s going to be much harder to rebound and shoot threes against Wyoming.
Wyoming has held opponents to 20.5 percent from three and 22.8 percent offensive rebounds this season. If Grand Canyon can’t sustain that kind of success, this game will be very close and I actually like Wyoming to win this game outright. Wyoming is shooting 61.9 percent inside and should be able to get to the line more frequently in this game while also winning the turnover battle.
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