About three or four hours before tip-off, the Little Rock game I had planned on betting was canceled due to COVID and injuries. So instead of potentially going 2-1, we went 1-1 on the night. We barely lost any money last night. But we can win a whole lot more today.
Here are my top NCAAB picks for Wednesday, December 15.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
Akron vs. Wright State: Akron +3.5 (-110)
(7:00 PM ET tip)
The Akron zips have won four straight games and seem to be on the right path moving forward. The Zips are currently 6-3 on the season, with a devastating loss to Ohio State earlier in the year. The Zips can stick around against any team and will get a chance to take on a Wright State team that is 2-6 on the year.
Despite these records, Akron is an underdog on the road. The Zips are the best team in the nation in free throws attempted to field goals attempted and are the much better three-point shooting team. Wright State has struggled to defend inside the arc, allowing teams to shoot 57.9 percent.
There’s a good chance Akron dominates offensively in this game as most teams have been beating Wright State early in shot clocks when given the opportunity.
Bellarmine vs. South Dakota: South Dakota -110 Moneyline
(8:00 PM ET tip)
Don’t pay attention to Bellarmine’s 5-6 record on the season. The Knights have won four games against non-D1 opponents on the season. Take those four wins away, and Bellarmine has just one win against Central Michigan, a team currently ranked 327th in the nation via KenPom.
Bellarmine has struggled defensively, allowing teams to shoot a 56.3 percent effective field goal percentage. Opponents are also hitting 35.9 percent from long range and 58.3 percent from inside against Bellarmine. The offense for the Knights also hasn’t been great. There’s an excellent chance South Dakota wins the glass and gets to the line way more often.
South Dakota has been awful trying to defend the three-point shot this season. Still, with Bellarmine coming into this game shooting just 27.2 percent from deep, I’m confident South Dakota will force some misses and end each possession with solid rebounding.
Utah State vs. Weber State: Utah State -145 Moneyline
(9:00 PM ET tip)
Weber State is 9-1 on the year, but Weber State’s competition hasn’t been all that great. The one loss came against Washington State, where Weber State lost by over 30 points. Washington State is ranked 42nd in KenPom and was the only team that Weber State faced above the 125 mark in rankings.
Weber State is struggling on the offensive glass, bringing down just 19.6 percent of offensive rebounds. There will be plenty of one-and-done shots for Weber State, and Utah State should be able to earn second chances against a pretty poor rebounding team in general.
Utah State is the better shooting team and will take on a Weber State team that lacks depth. If Weber State is slightly overmatched and has a player get in foul trouble early, Utah State will have the chance to pull away in this game.
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