We’re one weekend away until we get the All-Star break. After Sunday, we won’t get another baseball game until Thursday, without counting the All-Star game.
The All-Star break is always fun between the home run derby and the game itself, but betting opportunities are limited compared to full slates of games. So let’s take advantage of this weekend while we can.
Here are my top three F5 bets for tonight’s MLB slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
It’ll be Kyle Gibson for the Phillies and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins. In most Alcantara starts, the under is the play.
Tonight, the under is still the play.
Alcantara is currently the leading NL Cy Young candidate via oddsmakers. In the last 30 days, Alcantara has a 3.40 xFIP while inducing 63.4% of ground balls when balls are batted into play. He’s also allowed just 12.5% of line drives when balls are batted into play and has limited walks to just 2.8% of batters faced.
The Phillies have some power potential at the top of their order, but their first four batters in the lineup have all struck out 25% or more in the last month when facing a right-handed pitcher.
On the other hand, the Marlins are hitting a .145 ISO and wOBA of .282 as a projected lineup against righties in the last 30 days. Only Luke Williams has a high wOBA against righties of .374; however, he’s got the lowest amount of plate appearances against righties in the Marlins lineup.
Miami has struck out 25% of the time against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup and has hit under 20% of line drives when balls are batted into play.
Kyle Gibson hasn’t pitched lights out, but he’s got a great matchup tonight against Miami. Let’s ride the under.
Bet: Under 7 (-110 at DraftKings)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Michael Kopech will take the hill for the White Sox with a 6.51 xFIP in the last 30 days. Kopech started the season red hot but has since cooled off, striking out just 17.9% of batters recently.
His walks have also increased to 12%, and he’s induced just 33.3% of ground balls when balls are batted into play in the previous month of baseball.
He’ll take on a Twins lineup with a .223 ISO and wOBA of .347 against righties in the previous month. Only two batters are hitting below a .342 wOBA against righties. The Twins have plenty of potential to put runs on the board.
But so do the White Sox. The White Sox will take on a lefty in Devin Smeltzer, who has a 5.57 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s struck out just 17.9% of batters faced during that time frame and will now pitch against a White Sox lineup with a wOBA of .373 against lefties recently using the projected lineup.
The reality is that both teams will have plenty of base runners in this game. We’ll just need to get some hits with runners in scoring position, and I’m taking the over.
Bet: Over 9 (-120 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
We saw yesterday’s game go under the total in a 3-2 game between two high-caliber starting pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon.
Tonight, we’re going to get some of the same between Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers and Alex Wood of the Giants.
Woodruff has looked incredible in his last three starts since coming off the Injured List. He has a 2.19 xFIP in those three games and has struck out 41.5% of batters.
He’ll take on a Giants lineup that struck out 10 times against Corbin Burnes last night. San Francisco has recently struck out 26.6% of the time against righties using their projected lineup.
Meanwhile, the Brewers struggled against lefty Carlos Rodon last night. They’ll take on another lefty in Alex Wood, who has a 3.98 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s not throwing as many strikeouts as Rodon, but he’s capable of throwing many and rarely walks batters.
Take the under in this one.
Bet: Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)
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