The weekends are always the best when it comes to baseball. We’re usually guaranteed full slates of games throughout the entire weekend.
I say “usually” because many games could be postponed today due to rain. We’ll try to do our best to tip-toe around those games.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 6, in the MLB.
Royals/Orioles Total (8, -120)
Both offenses have been awful to start the year but so have the starters. The Royals will pitch Carlos Hernandez, who has a 6.56 xFIP with 9.5% strikeouts and 11.9 percent walks. Meanwhile, the Orioles will pitch Jordan Lyles, who has a 5.35 xFIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate and 8.4 percent walks.
Neither starter is getting the job done analytically. Any major league hitter could have success against these two starters.
This is a complete fade of those two. The Royals, as a unit, only strike out 17.3 percent of the time. They’ll put the ball in play against Lyles. On the other hand, the Orioles have a couple more reliable bats. This team only hits ground balls 39.1 percent of the time against righties and is also hitting 26.8 percent of line drives.
Let’s go with the over in this one and hope we can beat the rain.
Bet: Over 8 (-120 at DraftKings)
Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5, +105)
The Detroit Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Against righties, the Tigers’ lineup has a .095 ISOO and a wOBA of .273, along with 26.7 percent strikeouts. Tonight, they’ll take on Luis Garcia, who has 22.4 percent strikeouts and 5.9 percent walks.
On the other hand, the Tigers will pitch Beau Brieske, who has a 6.36 xFIP with 15% strikeouts and 10 percent walks. He’s been extremely lucky with a .111 BABIP, but that’s about to change against an Astros lineup that has a .194 ISO and a wOBA of .310 against righties.
The Astros also hit just 38.1 percent ground balls against righties and 23.7 percent line drives. Brieske won’t be able to get through five in this one.
Bet: Astros -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Mariners F5 Moneyline (-115)
The Marlins will start Josh Fleming, who has struck out just 20.5 percent of batters and has walked 7.7 percent of batters. He’s getting hit hard and has a BABIP of .396 despite having a 65.5 percent ground ball rate. That ground ball rate won’t last as he gets deeper into the season, and the Mariners have a lineup that has an ISO of .158, wOBA of .328, and a walk percentage of 14.6. The Mariners have a load of talent against lefties.
They’ll also have Logan Gilbert on the mound, who has been sensational to start the year. He’s struck out nearly 25 percent of batters and will take on a Rays lineup that has struck out 24 percent of the time against righties. It’s a great matchup for the up-and-coming ace.
Bet: Mariners F5 Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
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