A profitable day yesterday turned not profitable quickly as the Cardinals blew a 6-0 lead to the Dodgers and lost 7-6, making us 1-2 on the day instead of 2-1. We are back and determined to head into the All-Star Break on a high note with our last three picks of the week.
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees ML
The Yankees have lost just two series this season, one to the Orioles and one to the White Sox. So naturally, New York’s third series loss would come to the lowly Reds, right? Cincinnati is still considered a low-rate team when it has actually been somewhat respectable after a historically bad start. The Reds have rebounded from a 3-22 start to win 30 of its next 63 games. That .476 winning percentage in that span extrapolated over the entire season would roughly have them five games back of a wild card spot in the National League.
New York’s Nestor Cortes (7-3, 2.74) has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts to the Rays, Astros, and Red Sox. Although Cincinnati is not on par with those teams offensively, it still ranks eighth in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and in the top half of the league in slugging and wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Castillo continues to be a widely talked about name as the trade deadline approaches, and he has increased his value tremendously with a 0.90 ERA over his last three starts. In addition, Castillo has 25 strikeouts over his previous 20 innings and is in the 82nd percentile in barrel rate allowed.
Thus, we expect a scorching-hot Castillo to limit the Yankees bats and lead Cincinnati to another upset.
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (+180 at DraftKings)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: White Sox Team Total O/U
The White Sox have feasted on left-handed pitching compared to righties and should struggle against one of the American League’s hottest right-handed pitchers in this series opener. Chicago ranks 25th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, and 29th in isolated power against right-handed pitching this season. Thus, we expect Minnesota’s Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.03), who is unbeaten in seven home starts this season and has pitched to a 2.79 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in his last seven starts overall, to shut down an underperforming Chicago lineup. This is especially true as none of the five White Sox batters with at least six career at-bats against Gray are hitting better than .250.
Bet: Chicago White Sox Team Total UNDER 3.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: Corbin Burnes O/U Strikeouts
Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.20) headlines arguably the best starting pitching matchup of the day as he opposes San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.70) in a matchup of two pitchers named to the All-Star Game. However, this bet is all about Burnes, who faces a Giants lineup that has underperformed for much of their poor 8-15 stretch.
Burnes’ strikeout percentage is over 30% for the third consecutive season. Though he has already allowed 12 home runs compared to just seven from last year’s Cy Young campaign, he is facing a Giants lineup that ranks 24th in slugging, 19th in wRC+, and has the fifth-worst strikeout percentage (24.2%) against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. As a result, San Francisco should not take advantage of Burnes from a power standpoint, especially when playing in the cavernous Oracle Park.
Burnes has recorded at least eight strikeouts in five of his previous six starts, and we expect him to surpass his projected strikeout total once again.
Bet: Corbin Burnes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.