The game of the day, and the subsequent series of the weekend, is between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets and Dodgers not only own the two best records in the National League but are the two highest-scoring teams in the majors. While that game is the most high-profile, it is not the only one on Thursday’s slate that is a potential playoff preview, as the White Sox and Blue Jays, Angels and Yankees, and Padres and Brewers may all meet each other in the postseason.
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees RL (Game 1)
After thunderstorms postponed yesterday’s Angels-Yankees game to today, the pitching matchup between Reid Detmers (2-2, 4.65) and Nestor Cortes (4-1, 1.70) was changed, and the Angels decided to match Cortes with Shohei Ohtani (3-3, 3.45) for the first game of the doubleheader. The Yankees do not have as much a significant edge on the mound as they would have had if they faced Detmers, but we are getting even better value on New York’s runline as a result.
Cortes’ ERA ranks second in the majors, his WHIP (0.85) ranks third, and he has been the best in baseball with a .175 OBA.
New York is a profitable 5-4 covering the runline in Cortes’ nine starts. Two of the non-covers were because they won by one run, and the other two losses were because the offense gave him one run of support in those 18 innings. Ohtani was rocked for seven earned runs in just 0.2 innings in his only career start at Yankee Stadium, and while it will be difficult for New York to give Cortes that kind of run support again, we are still confidently laying the -1.5 runs in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays O/U
Since Alek Manoah joined the Blue Jays rotation in the middle of last season, he has been on a quick ascent to stardom. Manoah is off to a blistering 5-1 start, which brings his career record to 14-3. His 1.77 ERA is largely a product of his much better control in 2022, as he has issued just 1.4 BB/9 compared to 3.2 last year. In addition, Manoah dominates losing teams, as the under is 4-0 in his previous four starts against teams with a losing record.
Chicago’s offense has been putrid against right-handed starting pitching, ranking 27th in ISO (.114) and 28th in wRC+ (84). That is a big reason the under is 10-2-1 in Chicago’s last 13 games versus right-handed starting pitchers.
The White Sox counter Manoah with Johnny Cueto, who likely will not keep up his 2.41 ERA pace. However, that is more of an issue for the second half of the season, not his fourth overall start.
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