Favorites went 9-6 on Tuesday, which meant there was plenty of opportunities to cash some bets in the range of +140 to +155 on some live underdogs. We back one of those wagers in today’s picks, along with two favorites looking to rebound from losses in series openers.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds ML
Los Angeles’ Tyler Anderson is one of three pitchers in baseball with an 8-0 record (Tony Gonsolin and Joe Musgrove, the others), so it may seem blasphemous to oppose him today. However, the only other time he finished over .500 in his career was the COVID-shortened season of 2021, so we are banking on regression being on the way for the Dodgers hurler.
Among the seven pitchers with eight wins, Anderson’s .211 OBA ranks second-worst. He has also thrown the second-fewest innings but allowed the second-most home runs (six) of that group. Anderson’s last road outing against the White Sox was his shortest of the season, as he was yanked after allowing four earned runs over three innings. He is opposed by Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.33), who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight of his starts while throwing at least six innings in five of his last six. And lately, Los Angeles has been far from its dominant self, as it has failed to win more than two straight games since May 30.
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles ML
The Baltimore Orioles have quietly been solid baseball, as it has not lost any of its last three series against Tampa Bay, Toronto, or Kansas City, despite eight of the 11 games being played on the road. They are 6-4 in their last ten games, largely because of an awakened offense that has scored at least six runs six times in that span. In addition, Baltimore’s pitching staff has held opponents to three total runs in its last three victories.
Now the resurgent Orioles face Washington’s Patrick Corbin (3-9, 6.59), who leads the league in two of the wrong categories. Corbin’s 97 hits and 51 earned runs are the most allowed by any pitcher, and we expect another big day for Baltimore’s offense.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins ML
Minnesota’s Sonny Gray was shelved for 17 days with a right pectoral injury, but you wouldn’t have known it with how he pitched in his first start back from the IL. Gray (3-1, 2.09) pitched five scoreless innings and allowed just three hits on the road against the Mariners. Before going on the IL, Gray had allowed just one earned run in 13 innings over two starts against division rivals Detroit and Kansas City.
Gray is making his second start of the season against Cleveland, as he received a no-decision after allowing two earned runs in 4.1 innings. Despite the short outing, Gray recorded eight of the 13 outs via strikeout, which drove up his pitch count more than anything.
Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie’s (4-5, 2.96) 5.9 H/9 rate leads the league, but his 7.8 K/9 rate has dropped significantly after two years of posting rates of 11.3 and 10.2. McKenzie has struggled mightily against Minnesota in his career, going 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts, and has been rocked for six home runs (most he has allowed to any club) in 26.2 innings. Given the pitching disparity, the Twins are an excellent value play at home.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.