We have been the kings of 2-1 days lately, as we have won two of our three bets in four of our last five days. We just missed a 3-0 day yesterday with the Phillies ML, as they allowed two runs in the ninth inning to blow the game after taking a 5-4 lead. One of these days we will sweep our picks, and we have confidence that day is today.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals O/U
In Monday’s series opener, the Dodgers showed why they are the deepest and most feared lineup in baseball. Eight of Los Angeles’ nine starting position players had at least one hit in the 10-1 victory. And most of them got in on the action early, with seven players scoring a run or recording an RBI by the end of the sixth inning.
Los Angeles’ top three hitters (Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts) were red-hot entering last night’s contest. Every player among the trio was hitting .344 or better over the previous seven games with a combined four home runs and 17 RBIs. Betts especially was on fire, with a .407 batting average and 1.441 OPS entering Tuesday. And yesterday, the trio combined for four hits (three of them home runs) and six RBIs. They are a big reason the Dodgers lead the lead in OBP (.334) and OPS (.750) and why we like their chances for success offensively against Washington’s Erick Fedde (2-3, 4.08).
Washington has not done a lot right through 44 games, but they do rank in the top half of the league in batting average and on-base percentage against left-handed pitching, which bodes well for its chances to score runs against Julio Urias (3-3, 2.63).
Though the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in Washington between these teams, the over is 8-1 in the Nationals’ previous nine games against NL West opponents. We expect another high-scoring game between these teams in this afternoon’s contest.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres RL
While the Padres struggled against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes last night, they get a much-welcomed reprieve against today’s starter, Aaron Ashby. Ashby (0-3, 3.49) has the lowest WAR (0.0) and highest WHIP (1.38) of any of Milwaukee’s starting pitchers, which is a big reason the team is just 2-4 in his road starts.
It will be interesting to watch the level the Brewers play at over the next three weeks, as 12 of their next 22 games are against the Padres, Cardinals, and Mets. That is a huge step up in competition compared to the schedule they have played, as just six of their 43 games have been against teams over .500. Meanwhile, the Padres are 9-6 against teams over .500 to this point, and we expect them to expose Milwaukee in a game where they have a significant pitching advantage with Yu Darvish (4-1, 3.91) on the mound.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ML
The start to the year that Athletics starting pitcher Paul Blackburn has had is not getting nearly enough credit. The A’s are 18-27, yet Blackburn is 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA, and the team is 7-1 in his eight starts. That means Oakland is just 11-26 when Blackburn is not toeing the rubber.
It is not like the A’s have feasted on poor competition in Blackburn’s starts, as they have defeated the Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and the Angels twice. Those teams are over .500 and in third place or better in their division.
Seattle had won seven consecutive home games against Oakland before last night, which is likely a big reason we are getting a good price with Blackburn on the mound. However, he is precisely the pitcher who can lead Oakland to a win, as he has done heroically with a poor team around him all season.
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