With the last week of the Major League Baseball regular season upon us, Monday is a very popular day for off days with teams gearing up for the final stretch. Just six teams are in action, and while I would normally split my bets up among several games, there is enough reason to back two plays from the same Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves game today as my best bets.
Read on for my top MLB picks & predictions for Monday, September 22.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals (+208) at Atlanta Braves (-262) | O/U 7.0 (-115/-106)
The Braves entered Sunday's series finale against the Detroit Tigers amid a seven-game winning streak, using a red-hot offense that averaged 7.9 runs per game during the span as a means to their success. But I cannot trust Washington's offense to keep up enough to back the Over confidently, which is why Atlanta's run line is my top play.
In 10 of Atlanta southpaw Chris Sale's last 13 starts which dates back to before his IL stint, the combined total for both teams has been six or fewer runs. Atlanta is 4-2 in his last six starts, including a 5-0 victory over the Nationals in his last start where he pitched eight scoreless innings while allowing just three hits.
Sale was absolutely dominant in that outing despite receiving a no-decision. He struck out nine batters for the fourth consecutive start, while inducing 14 ground-ball outs, and recording a CSW% of 29% or better on three of his four primary pitches.
For as hot as Atlanta's offense has been, it still entered the weekend ranked 29th in BABIP and 26th in OPS over the last month. However, the Braves are in their better hitting split against Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker, who Atlanta tagged for six earned runs over five innings in an 11-3 win last Monday.
The Nationals are 2-7 in Parker's last nine starts, with the seven losses coming by an average of 4.4 runs. Let’s back Atlanta to cover this run line again.
Pick 1: Braves -1.5 (-115)
Atlanta has been out of contention for most of the season, but it would have been interesting to see where the team would have ended up and what the offense would have looked like all season if Jurickson Profar was not suspended 80 games for PEDs.
Profar's 1.026 OPS in August was the fourth-highest among the 227 batters who had at least 75 plate appearances. He slashed .295/.428/.598, and was the first Braves player with 25-plus runs and at least 25 or more RBI in a month since 2003.
Profar still entered Sunday with a respectable .824 OPS and four home runs over the last 30 days. Additionally, his home run odds get a big boost when facing Washington Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker, who is one of 20 MLB pitchers to allow at least 25 home runs this season.
Parker has allowed 19 of his 25 home runs to right-handed batters, and his 1.56 HR/9 rate through 13 road starts is worse than his 1.33 HR/9 rate through 17 starts at home this season.
The Braves have tagged Parker for 13 earned runs in 15 innings this season, and the southpaw has allowed at least one home run in nine consecutive starts, with multiple home runs allowed three times in that span. That makes these great odds for Profar to go deep tonight.
Pick 2: Jurickson Profar to Hit a Home Run (+600)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01