The last Monday of the regular season is here, and Major League Baseball schedule makers clearly identified this day as one to leave open in case any teams needed to make up rainouts from earlier in the year, as there are just four games on the slate. However, even amid the small slate of games, we have identified two plays that stick out that present great value.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, September 23.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (+136) at Houston Astros (-162) | O/U 7.5 (-124/+102)
My two MLB best bets today use motivation as a big factor in the reasoning for the play. And while the Houston Astros have not clinched the AL West, they are more than likely locked into the No. 3 seed in the AL playoffs, and are therefore not as likely to push starter Hunter Brown much more than needed with him making an early-round playoff start next week.
Seattle is one of just three American League teams that has a winning record against Houston, as it has taken six of the 10 head-to-head matchups. The Mariners have won both games against the Astros (by one run apiece) when Bryce Miller has toed the rubber, and he comes in hot to this matchup, with quality starts in six of his last eight outings, while pitching to a 1.99 ERA through four September starts. Miller’s low BABIP has allowed him to overcome control issues this month, as he has a 23:10 K:BB ratio in September, and I expect positive regression on his road home run rate, as he has allowed six home runs in 96 1/3 home innings but 15 home runs through 77 innings on the road.
Seattle was 10-5 in its last 15 games (+3.99 units/21% ROI) and had covered the runline in five of its last six road games (+5.30 units/75% ROI) entering Sunday, and the Mariners are a great value as road underdogs in this matchup as the Astros could look sluggish in playing out the string until the start of the playoffs.
MLB Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+136)
San Francisco Giants (+144) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-172) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
Another game in which motivation is on completely different levels is in this matchup between NL West rivals. San Francisco is one of eight NL teams eliminated from playoff contention, while Arizona remains in a heated battle to maintain one of the NL’s three wild card spots.
The Giants snapped a seven-game losing streak in Hayden Birdsong’s starts in his last outing, but I am not putting much stock into that 5-3 victory against a Baltimore Orioles squad that is reeling down the stretch. Birdsong is the same pitcher who pitched to an 8.68 ERA in August, and he should be out-pitched by Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had his two-highest strikeout totals of the season (seven and 11) in his last two starts. That strikeout success should continue against a Giants squad that has struck out at the third-highest rate (30.1%) against southpaws on the road in the second half of the season, and that should help overcome San Francisco’s seventh-highest BABIP (.320) in that split.
Eight of Arizona’s last nine wins have come by two or more runs, so I am opting for the better value and laying the 1.5 runs in this matchup with a Diamondbacks squad that was 61-36 in their last 97 games entering Sunday, profiting their moneyline backers 21.95 units with an 18% ROI in that span.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+116)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.