We’ll wrap the weekend with a couple of key games. We’ve seen momentum take a big swing in one series and help the road team get some positive momentum to split. In another, the home team is headed toward disaster as they’ll fail to win their ninth-straight series but will need to win today to at least avoid the sweep.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Chicago White Sox (+128) vs. Boston Red Sox (-152) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 11:36 a.m. ET)
The Red Sox are heading into a tailspin as they now are in last place in the AL East. The hitting continues to struggle as they’ve put across just three runs in the last three games. They will try to avoid the sweep but are now 0-7-1 in their last eight series.
Michael Wacha has been Boston’s best starter with a 3-0 record, 1.38 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, and 4.5 hits per nine. If anyone can stop the bleeding, he’s their best shot.
Although, we’re beginning to see the Chicago offense we’ve been expecting all season. Jose Abreu has three hits in the first two games, and Luis Roberts is hitting .444 in his last six. This could be the start of something.
The White Sox will have Dallas Keuchel going and this year has been a disaster for the veteran with an 8.40 ERA and a WHIP of 2.33. Keuchel was always good at keeping the ball down and letting the pitches drop off. He hasn’t been able to do it this year as they start higher in the zone and move through the middle.
That type of pitching will play right in Boston’s hands with their ability to launch it onto the green monster. Boston should salvage at least one game.
Leg 1: Red Sox ML
Texas Rangers (+194) vs. New York Yankees (-235) O/U 7
(First Pitch 1:36 p.m. ET)
The Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball as their 11-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday. With now three days off due to postponed games, let’s hope the extended time off doesn’t impact them.
The offense has been incredible as they are third in runs (4.76), second in slugging (.424), and OPS (.746). The power numbers are there with Anthony Rizzo’s and Aaron Judge’s nine home runs apiece, and their 18 together is more than five team’s total (Tigers, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Nationals).
They have their ace Gerrit Cole, who, after a shaky start to the season, has found his groove. At the beginning of the season, he was throwing the cutter a little more, and that pitch was getting rocked along with the four-seam was that was getting the late bite over the plate. He’s now mixing the four-seam with the slider more, and it’s worked well.
He’ll face a former rival during his time in Houston and has a good history against the Rangers. The current roster is batting .194 with a K% of 30.4 in 79 at-bats.
The Rangers will counter with Dane Dunning, who is coming off an incredible start as he allowed one earned run in 7.2 innings against the Braves. Dunning is going to go heavy on the sinker and slider, and there’s a good chance you won’t see any of his pitches hit the 90s.
He has a big challenge ahead as the Yankees do very well against right-handed pitching at home, including an AL-best .465 slugging and third in the entire league with 16 home runs. Right-handed hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu have no problem going the other way to that short porch.
The Yankees have been tough to beat at home. They’re currently 10-2 on the moneyline and 8-5 ATS in the Bronx this year.
Leg: 2 Yankees -1.5
Miami Marlins (+142) vs. San Diego Padres (-168) O/U 6.5
(First Pitch 4:11 p.m. ET)
The Marlins finally snap that six-game losing streak with five being decided by one run. The bats were alive throughout the game, and Pablo Lopez continued to pitch well with Miami getting the 8-0 win.
They have Trevor Rogers on the mound, and while the overall numbers are harsh, his road numbers have been very good. In 16 road innings, he’s allowed just three runs, 12 hits, and batters are hitting .211. Maybe he just needs to live out of a hotel.
While the Padres won the first two games, they haven’t hit well in this series as they’re just .173 and have scored five runs in three games. It’s tough to score runs when you have a third of your starting lineup out (Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers, and Luke Voit).
Joe Musgrove will be on the mound, and he’s pitched well this season, so he should keep the game close.
After Musgrove is what San Diego should worry about. Yesterday, the game was still a manageable 3-0 as they handed it to the bullpen, whose sixth-worst ERA (4.30) allowed five runs and blew any chance of a comeback.
Rogers should keep that road performance going long enough until Miami pushes another win to split the series.
Leg 3: Marlins ML
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +665
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