The push for the NHL playoffs continue on Thursday, and it should be an eventful day with 28 teams taking the ice. Nearly every game on the schedule will have some type of postseason impact, and I've got you covered from a sports betting angle if you're looking to spice things up. Let's dive into my top NHL bets and keep building on this 5-1 run.
Thursday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-118) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-102) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
I'll be on the Lightning in this game. For starters, they have the more experienced group, including their key players like Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who are both frontrunners in the race for the Hart and Vezina Awards. They also have the better coach in this matchup. Now that it's getting down to the nitty-gritty, I think we can lean on these unquantifiable edges, especially since the Bolts have been a wagon for more than a decade now.
Statistically, the Canadiens have been playing lights out defensively over the last 10 games, ranking second in GAA (1.97) during the stretch. However, in terms of expected GAA, they're all the way down at 28th (3.25). Factor in that their penalty-killing group is just 21st overall (77.73%) compared to the Lightning's sixth-ranked unit (81.97%), and you can start to see how maybe things could unravel for Montreal's defense in this spot. I'll take the high-powered, experienced Lightning in this one.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-118)
Philadelphia Flyers (+100) vs. Detroit Red Wings (-120) | O/U 6.0 (-118/-102)
The Flyers (40-26-12) have moved into third place in the Metropolitan Division, which means we're on track for a Flyers-Penguins first-round matchup if things hold the way they are. Philadelphia will try to stay hot on the road tonight against a Detroit squad (40-29-9) that is sliding hard. The Red Wings now sit three points out of the Wild Card and are priced at +1500 to make the playoffs. This game gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.
In terms of my gut feeling, I really don't trust either of these teams. However, from a statistical angle, there's simply no denying that the Flyers are playing elite hockey at the moment. Over the last 10 games, Philadelphia ranks first in xGoals% (61.88%) and fourth in goal differential per 60 minutes (+1.29). Detroit has been floundering, ranking 20th (47.89%) and 24th (-0.6) in those respective categories.
The bottom line is that Coach Rick Tocchet has this Flyers group believing in themselves. They've been getting quality goaltending out of Dan Vladar, who now ranks fourth in GAA (2.40) and 15th in save percentage (.907) this season. They're enjoying a 9-3 SU run in their last 12 games, while going 10-1 SU in their last 11 road affairs. We have to back them at even-money against this Wings club that has lost five of its last six (1-4-1).
Pick: Flyers Moneyline (+100)
Nashville Predators (+135) vs. Utah Mammoth (-165) | O/U 6.0 (-120/+100)
The Predators (37-31-10) currently occupy the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, where they're trailing only the Mammoth (41-30-6) in the Wild Card standings. Puck drop is slated for 9:00 p.m. ET from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.
I'm not overthinking this one; give me the Over. The Mammoth have been dominating offensively, ranking first in goals per 60 minutes (4.58) over the last 10 games. They're first in shooting percentage (16.61%) and 13th in high-danger shots on goal (36) during the 10-game sample size.
This has led to Utah's last seven games going over the total. They're also 5-1 to the Over in their last six home games, while seeing four of the last five meetings with Nashville clear the pregame number.
The Predators have been finding some offense as well, netting 3.44 goals per 60 minutes (10th) over the last 10 games. They bring in the 11th-ranked power-play unit, which is cashing its man-advantage opportunities at a 22.81% clip. Both teams have leaned on their offense to get them into a Wild Card position, and I think we'll continue to see the fireworks when they square off tonight. Let's play the over.
Pick: Over 6.0 Goals (-120)
