The UFC heads to Newark, N.J., this weekend, and we have a headlining title fight between Islam Makhachev (C) and Dustin Poirier (#4) in the Lightweight division. There's no shortage of ways to get in on the action for UFC 302, including heading to the prop sheet.
Below, I've narrowed in on my three favorite prop bets for UFC 302.
UFC 302 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Islam Makhachev (-600) vs. Dustin Poirier (+440)
The oddsmakers aren't giving Dustin Poirier much of a chance this weekend, pricing him at +440 to secure the Lightweight title. Islam Makhachev comes back at -600 to successfully defend his title for the third time.
I think there's a very realistic chance that Makhachev discards Poirier within the first 10 minutes, so I'll say this fight doesn't make it to the third round. The Russian champion has seen 16 of his 25 professional wins come before the final horn, 11 of which are submissions. This is actually a favorable setup for Makhachev, as Poirier's takedown defense rate is just 63%. He should be able to ragdoll Poirier early and often, setting up his chances for a tap-out win.
It's worth noting that Poirier's two recent fights have both ended prior to the third round, while Makhachev's latest fight against Alexander Volkanovski only lasted 186 seconds. That makes it four out of five fights that have failed to reach the third round for the champion. Makhachev's in the middle of his prime, and I expect him to take care of the aging Poirier with ease.
Bet: Fight To Start Round 3: No (-135)
Sean Strickland (-250) vs. Paulo Costa (+205)
Saturday's co-main event is a banger, as Sean Strickland (#1) and Paulo Costa (#7) square off in a Middleweight division tilt. The former champion is a sizable favorite at -250, while Costa is priced at +205 to get back in the win column after a unanimous-decision loss to Robert Whittaker last time out.
This is a special five-round, non-title fight on Saturday. Both of these fighters possess heavy hands, so I will say someone goes to sleep over the 25-minute span. Costa's an impressive 14-3 in his professional career, and 11 of his victories have come by knockout. Meanwhile, Strickland, the former Middleweight champ, has seen 11 of his 28 professional wins come via KO/TKO.
Neither of these men boasts a takedown rate north of 0.85, so we should expect this fight to stay vertical. Both fighters are averaging over 5.90 significant strikes per minute, meaning we'll likely have a high-volume war in the co-main event. One of these 185-pounders will go to sleep on Saturday night; give me KO/TKO/DQ as the exact method of victory.
Bet: Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-125)
Niko Price (+210) vs. Alex Morono (-258)
This Welterweight fight between Niko Price and Alex Morono is actually a rematch of a fight from back in 2017. Price secured a second-round knockout against Morono, but it was eventually ruled a no-contest after the winner tested positive for marijuana. Despite the head-to-head "win," Price is more than a 2/1 underdog (+210). Morono is priced at -258 to get the win on Saturday.
Like the noted Strickland vs. Costa fight, we can expect this bout to stay on the feet. Price is landing only 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Morono's takedown rate is just 0.32. That said, I'm playing the over for Price's significant strikes landed prop, which sits at 45.5.
I think this number is severely deflated. Price, while he hasn't found much success lately (1-4, one NC in last six fights), is a high-volume striker. He's landing 5.46 significant strikes per minute, so if you simply multiply that by 15 minutes, you land at nearly 82 significant strikes. Aside from getting knocked out just 38 seconds into his last fight against Robbie Lawler, Price has cleared this mark in five straight contests. Including the Lawler defeat, he is averaging 88.5 significant strikes per fight over the six-fight span!
Let's lock in Price to land at least 46 significant strikes on Saturday night.
Bet: Niko Price Over 45.5 Toto Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
