UFC 311 Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)

The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked. There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Islam Makhachev will battle Arman Tsarukyan for a second time, but this time in the main event for the title.

The card will take place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.

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UFC 311 Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan: Parlay Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Leg 1: Renato Moicano (-162)

Renato "Money" Moicano has been on a tear recently. He is on a four-fight winning streak, with his latest win against Benoit Saint-Denis as a +200 underdog. He is fighting Beneil Dariush on this card, which is a tough fight for anyone in the Lightweight division. Dariush is coming off back-to-back knockout losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan.

Although they are the same age and debuted in the UFC in 2014, Moicano has far less tread on the tires. Dariush has been in some wars against some of the toughest competition in the promotion and is likely nearing the end of his career. I wrote more on this fight in my longshots article, but I expect Moiciano to win by knockout and put on an entertaining battle for the fans.

Leg 2: Jiri Prochazka (+105)

I wrote about this fight in detail here. I am backing Jiri Prochazka as the slight underdog. He is fighting Jamahal Hill. Both men are coming off knockout losses to Alex Pereira and are looking to get another title shot. Prochazka is the more experienced fighter of the two despite being a year younger than Hill. He lands 5.38 significant strikes and absorbs 5.59 significant strikes per minute. His striking defense is his biggest flaw, but he has proven his durable chin in multiple fights throughout his UFC career.

Hill is much more defensive as a striker but has trouble fighting off his back foot. I expect Prochazka to press forward and make Hill fight while moving backward, which negates his one-shot power. Prochazka can also mix in wrestling, which Hill will not. Hill has not landed a takedown in his UFC career, while Prochazka averages 0.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. This fight will likely be a slugfest for as long as it lasts. Prochazka's warrior mentality should be the difference in getting him the victory.

Leg 3: Umar Nurmagomedov (-270)

Umar Nurmagomedov is finally getting a title shot, and I think he will rise to the occasion. Merab Dvalishvili is a tough opponent for anyone, but he is beatable. He is on an 11-fight winning streak and won the UFC Bantamweight belt via unanimous decision over Sean O'Malley in September.

Nurmagomedov will have to adjust to his relentless pressure, but his wrestling should come in handy as he defends Dvalishvili's takedown attempts. This matchup is tailor-made for Nurmagomedov. He is the more technical striker and can negate Dvalishvili's wrestling. He could go on the offensive with his wrestling to slow the pace of Dvalishvili if he can keep him on the mat. I wrote in detail about this fight here. I expect Nurmagomedov to win via decision.

Parlay Odds: +354

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