Are you feeling the patriotism flowing through your veins yet? There's less than a month until the United States of America commemorates its 250th birthday, and the ongoing celebrations continue on Sunday night with an epic UFC Freedom 250 card from the White House lawn in Washington, D.C.
All roads lead to a Lightweight title fight between (C) Ilia Topuria and (IC) Justin Gaethje. Below, I'll dive into the main event at 155 Lbs., breaking down each fighter's path to this historic night, touch on their key statistics, and wrapping up with my betting analysis.
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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Ilia Topuria (17-0-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
There's a new sheriff in town at 155 lbs., and his name is Ilia Topuria. The Spaniard rolled through the Featherweight division, winning multiple title fights against Alexander Volkanovski (KO - Punch) and Max Holloway (KO - Punch), before setting his eyes on the loaded Lightweight division. He's already 1-0 at 155 lbs., taking out Charles Oliveira (KO - Punch) with a first-round knockout in June of 2025. The 29-year-old is a perfect 17-0-0 professionally, amassing seven knockouts and eight submission victories.
I don't recall seeing a fighter as well-rounded in all aspects of MMA as Topuria. He can beat his opponent in a myriad of ways, including leaning on his knockout power. Topuria is landing 4.83 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.83 strikes per minute. He's averaging 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing his attempts at a 61% success rate. "El Matador," a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, is fending off 93% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Justin Gaethje (27-5-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-L-W-W
This is the second time that Justin Gaethje has held the interim champion title at Lightweight in the UFC. The first came when he knocked out Tony Ferguson (Punch) in May 2020, but he subsequently lost the unifying fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov (SUB - Triangle Choke) in October 2020. "The Highlight" has fought his way back up the ranks, and he's coming off of a thrilling victory over Paddy Pimblett (U-DEC) to capture the interim belt in January 2026.
Gaethje is a high-volume striker that loves to go to war. He's landing 6.48 significant strikes per minute, but absorbing an inflated 7.05 strikes per minute. Despite having an extensive wrestling background, the 37-year-old doesn't rely on it very often. He's only averaging 0.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. The American is denying 74% of opposing takedown attempts.
Topuria vs. Gaethje Prediction
The oddsmakers aren't giving the interim champ, Justin Gaethje, much of a chance on Sunday evening. The veteran is a +390 underdog, while his opponent, Ilia Topuria, comes back at -520 to retain the Lightweight belt.
The obvious choice here is Ilia Topuria to win, and I wouldn't even really consider backing Justin Gaethje unless I could find a price of +425 or higher. But even taking Topuria to win by knockout is still a bit outrageous, with the bet sitting at -225. Instead of trying to force an underdog play or lay heavy juice, I think it's best to pivot to looking at the total.
I'm playing the over 1.5 rounds at -115 in Sunday's UFC Freedom 250 main event. Gaethje is a guy who can take an absolute beating, and considering the circumstances, I think he'll manage to last more than 7.5 minutes. He has only been knocked out three times across his 27-5-0 career, with one of those, albeit epic, being the fluky last-second loss to Max Holloway. Besides that, you have to go back to 2018 to find his last knockout defeat.
Topuria's power has passed every test thus far, including moving up to Lightweight and burying Charles Oliveira in just 2:27 worth of fight time. However, Gaethje has seen his last three fights go at least 14 minutes and 59 seconds. He's a tough guy to get out of the cage early.
If the American wants to pull off the upset, then he needs to drag this fight into the later rounds. With his home country and 1,000+ United States military men behind him, I think the interim champ will at least survive halfway through the second round. Let's take the Over.
Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (-115)
