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Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by October 6, 2021
Emory Jones

The Vanderbilt Commodores are coming off a 30-28 win over the UConn Huskies. They’re now 2-3 but that hasn’t stopped the oddsmakers from putting the Commodores as a 38-point underdog against the Florida Gators. Florida is coming off a stunning loss on the road against Kentucky and is now currently 3-2 on the season.

In the swamp, oddsmakers aren’t even giving Vanderbilt a chance. Earlier this season, the Commodores lost to Georgia, 62-0. It was one of the most embarrassing games in college football this season. Vanderbilt can do nothing right outside running the football. Still, Vanderbilt’s run game doesn’t even come close in comparison to Florida’s, where they’re rushing for nearly 300 yards per game.

In the least exciting game in the SEC, can Florida cover one of the largest SEC spreads in recent memory against Vanderbilt?

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Details

  • Opening Line: Florida -37, O/U 58.5
  • Current Line: Florida -38, O/U 59.5
  • Last meeting: November 21, 2020, Florida 38, Vanderbilt 17

Overview 

The Florida Gators came within two points of beating Alabama just a couple of weeks ago. Since then they’ve defeated Tennessee handedly and lost to Kentucky in the final seconds due to a missed opportunity in the red zone. But just sticking around, at home, says a lot about Florida.

Florida is gaining over 500 yards of offense per game with 31.4 points per game behind Emory Jones who literally has more interceptions than touchdowns thrown. Jones is a dual-threat quarterback that also leads the team in the run game with 70 carries for 439 yards and two touchdowns. He’s one heckuva runner but his passing game is pretty weak.

Still, Florida has done a great job blocking in pass protection and has obviously done well enough in the run game, helping Florida to achieve just under 300 yards on the ground per game.

On defense, the Gators have allowed just 19.8 points per game and 325.6 yards per game. The pass is dynamic and that’s helped the coverage make plays. The Florida secondary hasn’t looked great but the pass rush is getting to the quarterback quickly to create takeaways and sacks.

Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is allowing nearly 450 yards per game on defense and 35 points per game. On offense, they’re only averaging 16 points and 315.4 yards per game.

The pass protection has been abysmal for Ken Seals, who has five touchdowns but also five interceptions as quarterback for Vanderbilt. Florida could have an absolute field day getting through the offensive line.

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Trends 

  • Gators are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Commodores’ last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Bottom Line 

ESPN’s Football Power Index is giving Vanderbilt a .9% chance of winning this game. That’s how bad Vanderbilt has been this year. It’s hard to argue with the spread and while it’s super high at -38, after watching Georgia win 62-0 a couple weeks back, I can’t say I’m surprised.

Florida should dominate defensively with their pass rush hand should get to Seals all game long. The coverage could falter and allow a big catch or two for a touchdown, but overall, the Vanderbilt run game is more efficient. That run game won’t be a factor when they’re down multiple scores.

The rush defense for Vanderbilt has also had their fair share of big plays. Florida was able to run all over Alabama a couple weeks ago. Imagine how the run game will perform against Vanderbilt?

It’s a ridiculous spread, but I’ll bite. A 51-7 game seems more likely than a 42-21 game or something. Vanderbilt truly stinks.

Pick: Florida -38 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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