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Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Guide (2021)

by February 2, 2021

Patrick Reed (25/1) showcased his world-class short game at the Farmers Insurance Open in California to claim his ninth career PGA title. Reed led the field in both strokes gained: around-the-green and putts per GIR en route to a five-stroke win. It was an impressive win for the polarizing golfer, who found himself in the middle of another controversy over the weekend.

The PGA Tour will now head to the desert for the annual Waste Management Phoenix Open. While it won’t be the party fans are accustomed to, 5,000 spectators will still be on the grounds for one of the most anticipated events. We are primed for an exciting finish on Super Bowl Sunday at the Stadium Course in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Another star-studded field will tee it up this week at the Phoenix Open. Jon Rahm (+650), Justin Thomas (+900), Rory McIlroy  (+1100), and Xander Schauffele (+1100) are the early betting favorites. Defending champion, Webb Simpson (+1600), is back in the field in hopes of a repeat. Weather conditions look pristine, so we can expect plenty of solid scoring out there this week.

Jon Rahm +650 +625 +700 +650
Justin Thomas +900 +775 +900 +800
Rory McIlroy +1100 +1150 +1200 +1100
Xander Schauffele +1100 +850 +1200 +1000
Webb Simpson +1600 +1500 +1700 +1400
Daniel Berger +2200 +1700 +2100 +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 +2300 +2300 +2200
Harris English +2800 +2800 +2900 +2500
Sungjae Im +3300 +3400 +3400 +3000
Will Zalatoris +4000 +5000 +4600 +4000

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Previous Winners

  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
  • 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
  • 2017:  Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
  • 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)

Course Preview

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, Arizona, will play at a Par 72 and measures around 7,261 yards. It underwent a major redesign in 2014 to add length to the track and to make things more challenging for the golfers. Adding to the challenge will be the fact that this course plays 1,250 feet above sea level, and the golf ball will travel further than usual. While we are going from 125,000 daily fans to 5,000 fans, golfers can still expect a lively atmosphere and will look to feed off the crowd. Greens will feature TifEagle BermudaGrass seeded with Poa and Ryegrass, that roll pretty fast. Long drivers of the ball have an advantage here, with scrambling easier than the average course.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Ball-Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>175 yards)
  • Birdie-or-Better

Outright Betting Picks

Jon Rahm (+750 on BetMGM)
It’s almost a sure thing for Rahm to finish in the top-10 each time he tees it up of late. His last four starts include three straight T7s and a T2. He didn’t have his best stuff in California last week but still found a way to stay in the mix. Now Rahm goes to an event where he placed T5 in 2015 and finished T11 or better in the last three years.

Xander Schauffele (+1200 on BetMGM)
Schauffele had all facets of his game working last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. Schauffele ranked top-10 in strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: tee-to-green. This is a great sign of things to come in the desert this week. He has three consecutive top-20s at this event and is knows his way around the course.

Longshot Betting Picks

Sungjae Im (+3400 on BetMGM
It’s been an impressive stretch of golf over the past three months for the young 22-year-old. A T2 at the Masters, a T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and a T12 at the American Express are some of his notable finishes. Some of his best finishes have come on Bermuda grass greens, and he placed seventh here in his debut at the Stadium course (2019). He has an elite all-around game to score well and compete in a loaded field.

Will Zalatoris (+4100 on BetMGM)   
Another young star in the making, Zalatoris, is beginning to turn many heads on Tour. Despite a driving accuracy of around 40 percent last week, Zalatoris still found a way to place T7. It was impressive watching the former Korn Ferry Tour star stick his approaches from difficult lies all weekend. So far in the young season, Zalatoris ranks fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and fifth in approach.

Other Betting Picks

Max Homa – Top-10 Finish (+550 on BetMGM)
It’s been a great stretch of golf for the 30-year-old. Three straight top-25s, including a T12 at Mayakoba Golf Classic and a T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, Homa is in some fine form. He now goes to a place where he has fond memories at. Homa finished T6 here in 2020 and T26 in 2019.

Luke List – Top-20 Finish (+400 on BetMGM)
This is a bet strictly based on value. List is striking the ball very well of late. He led the entire field in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. Even more impressive, he was third overall in strokes gained: tee-to-green, which helped him finish T10. His distance off the tee will come in handy again at the Stadium course, and he has had success here in the past. He was T25 here in 2020 and T26 in 2018.

Event Plays

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.