West Virginia vs. UCF: College Football Week 9 Odds & Picks

This week there are fewer games than our normal eight because a decent amount of rush-oriented teams are on bye. Let’s dive in into our College Football Week 9 Rush Rate picks! And below is a closer look at West Virginia vs. UCF.

College Football Week 9 Picks: West Virginia vs. UCF

West Virginia vs. UCF

West Virginia

11th in RROE on Standard Downs (+14.5%)
39th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
13th in RROE on Passing Downs (+11.9%)
50th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UCF

104th in Def Power Success Rate
94th in Def Stuff Rate
127th in Def Line Yards
83rd in Def Standard Downs Rate
128th in Def Rush Success Rate
63rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
65th in Def PFF Rush Grade
95th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
125th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

We have a new team to the column, welcome in West Virginia. They have a solid RROE and are efficient on both Standard and Passing Downs. UCF is pretty abysmal when it comes to stopping the run. UCF ranks 127th in Def Line Yards and 128th in Def Rush Success Rate. These rankings are a recipe for disaster. West Virginia should be able to stay ahead of the chains and keep this game closer than the spread indicates.

Bet: West Virginia +7.0 (-110)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!