There is an exciting slate of WNBA games on Friday night. Three matchups highlight some of the most intriguing teams in the league. Let's take a look at some of those matchups for our best WNBA picks for Friday night.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun
Last week, these teams faced off in Connecticut, with the Mystics winning 88-81. It was a game in which Connecticut played above its season averages, yet still lost by seven.
In the rematch, the Mystics are only 4.5-point favorites. Often, when a line looks too good to be true, it typically is. However, in this matchup with Washington and Connecticut, I'll be looking to walk headfirst into it.
Right off the bat, the Sun will be shorthanded. Connecticut has ruled out Aneesha Morrow, their leading scorer and rebounder, and Saniya Rivers, their team assists leader.
Those two played a big role in the first matchup, combining for 17 points and 12 rebounds. The Mystics, who rank in the top four in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. They should have no trouble repeating their rebounding dominance from last week.
The Mystics have also been one of the hottest teams in the WNBA over the last week. In addition to their win over the Sun, Washington produced victories on the road over the Liberty and Lynx, and another matchup with the Lynx ended in a two-point loss. They're on a four-game against the spread (ATS) streak.
With the injuries that the Sun are facing, they'll find it to be a tough task to repeat their performance against the Mystics last week. Washington is one of the most dominant teams on the boards this year and will continue to see success against a team missing its best rebounder. I'll be backing one of the hottest teams in the league with this short number on the road.
Pick: Mystics -4.5 (-104)
Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries
The premiere matchup of the night is being played in San Francisco. The Dream will travel to take on the Valkyries in a matchup pitting two of the league’s best defensive teams against each other.
Golden State and Atlanta rank second and third, respectively, in defensive rating. They showed that in their matchup on Wednesday night, which the Valkyries won 77-66 - a game that ended 28 points below the pregame total.
Golden State shot the ball very well on Wednesday. They were 45% from the field and a scorching 46.9% from deep on high volume. As good as Atlanta is on the defensive end, they are actually below average against opponents’ field-goal rate, so there is reason to believe they could repeat that performance.
On the other end, Atlanta had a fairly abysmal performance from the field. For the season, Atlanta isn't a great shooting team from deep, but 22.2% from three on just 18 attempts is well below even their standards. Against a Golden State team that allows the highest opponent three-point rate in the WNBA, I would expect a better offensive performance.
These are two of the best teams in the league, and you can expect another hard-fought game. Atlanta should be much more effective offensively, and this number has probably adjusted too much after a poor offensive game from them.
Meanwhile, Golden State played its game and punched the Dream right in the mouth. Despite the comfortable win, they didn't play too far outside of their season averages. The Valkyries should take another one in a higher-scoring game than the first.
Picks: Valkyries +1.5 (-114) & Over 164.5 Points (-110)
