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2020 NFL Draft Betting: Any Value Betting No. 1 Pick Overall?

by March 25, 2020

Although many of us were excited about the prospects of the 2020 NFL Draft happening in Las Vegas, the coronavirus pandemic has forced the league to make changes. While we don’t know when the draft will happen or how it will take place, we know it will eventually go down.

On the bright side, as a result of the pandemic, most sportsbooks have their betting lines up for the draft already and many of the books have a much bigger variety of props than they normally do. We’ll be taking a look at many of them in the coming days but for now, let’s focus on the No. 1 pick.

For months, it has been assumed that Joe Burrow will be the No. 1 pick overall. He’s a heavy favorite to do so but is there any value betting on someone else going first? Or if you’re sold on Burrow going No. 1, is there value betting on him or is the price too high? Let’s take a closer look. Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

(Odds courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook)

Get 4 Risk-Free Bets up to $1,000 at PointsBet >>

Burrow Is -3334 To Be Drafted First Overall

After piecing together an incredible 2019 campaign, former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is heavily favored to be the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. We’re talking about a guy who led LSU to an undefeated season, the SEC Championship and the National Championship. In terms of the stats, he totaled 5,671 passing yards, 60 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He was the Heisman Trophy winner, the Maxwell Award winners, the Walter Camp Award winner, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award winner, the Davey O’Brien Award winner, and the Manning Award winner. He was also named the Player of the Year by the Associated Press, Sporting News and was a unanimous All-American.

Are you starting to get the picture?

There was some brief concern that maybe Burrow didn’t want to play for the Cincinnati Bengals, who have the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he has put that to rest. At this point, I don’t see any scenario where he’s not the top selection in the draft.

At this point, the wildest possible situation would be that the Bengals trade out of the No. 1 pick but even in that case, someone else – say, the Miami Dolphins – would be trading up for Burrow. Defensive end Chase Young is a heck of a player but the general consensus is that Burrow is a generational talent. He’s not going to be passed up from the No. 1 spot.

Would The Bengals Bungle This Up?

There is a very small case to be made that the Bengals could draft Young because he addresses a position of need and they could go back to Andy Dalton under center. Truth be told, if Dalton has more help around him and Young is a Nick Bosa-like player, the Bengals actually might be better off in 2020. Dalton is still a very good quarterback.

The reason I don’t see that happening is the Bengals know Dalton’s limitations. He probably caps out at about taking a team to the playoffs; he hasn’t proven to be a guy that really elevates the team to another level. Furthermore, they benched Dalton last year to see what they had in rookie Ryan Finley, a clear-cut sign that they were ready to move on. Now they have a guy in Burrow in front of them, who has shown he can elevate his team to another level. The hope is he does carries that trait over into the NFL.

It just feels like the Dalton era is over in Cincinnati. He’s 32 years old, he’s going to be a free agent in 2021 and there just isn’t the upside that there once was. Even in the worst-case scenario, I could only see the Bengals trading out of this pick but leaving another team to select Burrow first overall. I can’t see a situation where the Bengals simply decide to take Chase Young ahead of him.

While the betting line is quite high, I’m not scared of the juice. You can bet on any other player to be selected first overall at PointsBet Sportsbook but I wouldn’t put my money on anyone other than Burrow.

Best Bet: Joe Burrow to go No. 1 overall (-3334)

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

Get 4 Risk-Free Bets up to $1,000 at PointsBet >>

Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.