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The 2020 NFL Draft is just days away and the excitement continues to build. Action is starting to pour in on the NFL Draft props, and that means odds are changing. One of the props that has seen both the line and the juice shift over the past week is the K’Lavon Chaisson prop at BetMGM. After opening at 15.5, the number has since been bumped up to 16.5 due to sharp action causing the book to adjust for risk exposure. The movement accentuates just how much potential value was in the initial line, and how much there still may be. Let’s dig in.
2020 NFL Draft – K’Lavon Chaisson draft position
Over 16.5 (-120)
Under 16.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
K’Lavon Chaisson (Edge – LSU)
K’Lavon Chaisson is a talented edge rusher who played for the National Champion LSU Tigers. An explosive speed rusher with hip fluidity, Chaisson is a versatile edge with a good motor. Explosive and athletic, Chaisson is widely regarded as the number two rated edge rushing prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft class. He is a fit for both 3-4 and 4-3 defenses, something that should increase his appeal to prospective teams. A surefire first-round talent, the only question is where he will be drafted.
Chaisson should be the second edge rusher off the board but has a wide variety of potential landing spots. While every team will be interested in talent like Chaisson, his draft position will come down to perceived value, depth chart, and positional priority. His draft ceiling appears to be the New York Jets at 11th overall. His draft floor, as unlikely as it might be, is a very early day two pick.
As opposed to going through all 16 teams involved with the under play, we will instead first eliminate the teams who will definitely not be drafting K’Lavon Chaisson. We will, of course, keep in mind that surprises like Clelin Ferrell being drafted by the Oakland Raiders at fourth overall can happen. The first three teams we can eliminate from the discussion are the Cincinnati Bengals, the Miami Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. All three of those teams will, barring something unexpected like Jacksonville moving into the top three, be drafting a first-round quarterback. Two other teams we can comfortably remove from the discussion are Washington at second overall, and the Detroit Lions at third overall. They will be adding an elite defensive player. The New York Giants at fourth overall will also be ruled out, as they will be able to select the top offensive lineman on their board or one of the elite defensive players.
Carolina Panthers (7th overall)
The Carolina Panthers have needs on both sides of the ball. Due to the depth at the defensive end position in the 2020 NFL Draft class, Chaisson may be a bit of a reach at seventh overall. The Panthers are more likely to go with Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, Jeffrey Okudah, or one of the draft classes top offensive linemen than draft an edge rusher.
Arizona Cardinals (8th overall)
The Arizona Cardinals make some sense as a landing spot for K’Lavon Chaisson. As mentioned above, Chaisson projects as a more ideal fit in a 3-4 scheme. With that being said, the Cardinals have Chandler Jones and the recently signed Devon Kennard to man the outside linebacker spots. Kennard had back to back seven sack seasons for the Detroit Lions, and racked up a career-high 45 pressures in 2019. His addition should eliminate any edge rusher not named Chase Young from contention at eighth overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9th overall)
Jacksonville has a need on the edge, and are expected to at least consider K’Lavon Chaisson at ninth overall. The Jaguars have been severely depleted on the defensive side of the ball, and are projected to spend much of their 2020 draft capital on restocking defensive talent. With that being said, aside from the need on the edge, the Jaguars also have strong needs at defensive tackle and cornerback. They would also do well to address their offensive line, especially with some of the 2020 NFL Draft classes elite prospects still projected to be available. While there is a chance Chaisson is the pick here, it is more likely that Jedrick Wills, Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton, Derrick Brown, Javon Kinlaw, Isaiah Simmons, or C.J. Henderson are drafted here if available.
Cleveland Browns (10th overall)
The Cleveland Browns are expected to strongly consider K’Lavon Chaisson at 10th overall. It is more likely that they hone in on an offensive lineman, but with Olivier Vernon a potential release candidate, the merits of drafting Chaisson will very likely be a topic of discussion. The Browns appear to have a bigger need on the offensive line, and as echoed above, the depth at the edge rusher position may work against Chaisson while the top offensive linemen are still on the board.
New York Jets (11th overall)
The New York Jets have to be considered one of the favorites to draft K’Lavon Chaisson. They have a pronounced need for an edge rusher and could look to address that need with their first-round pick. They play the 3-4 defense Chaisson is a better fit for, and are in need of an infusion of young talent up front. The Jets also have a need on the offensive line, but recently signed George Fant to a three year, $30 million dollar contract. Fant famously all but punched his ticket out of Seattle when he announced he wanted to play left tackle, the position he filled in admirably at when Seahawks starter Duane Brown was on the shelf.
The wide receiver position is also a major need, and one has to believe that Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb will be strong possibilities here. The New York Jets are also rumored to be enamored with Henry Ruggs, suggesting that he will indeed be in play here. If the tackles are removed from consideration due to the Fant signing, then this pick should come down to Jedrick Wills if still available, any of the elite defensive prospects that slip, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and K’Lavon Chaisson.
Las Vegas Raiders (12th overall)
The Las Vegas Raiders appear to be set on the edge with 2019 fourth overall pick Clelin Ferrell, and the surprisingly effective 2019 fourth-round pick Maxx Crosby. Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden also appear to prefer more prototypical builds at the position, which may all but rule out Chaisson even as a pick at 19th overall. The Raiders have more than a few needs, but are, barring an Isaiah Simmons or Jeffrey Okudah slip, expected to be targeting Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, or Henry Ruggs at 12th overall.
San Francisco 49ers (13th overall)
The San Francisco Giants are set on the edge with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford and are not expected to target an edge rusher with the 13th overall pick. San Francisco is in a rare position to add one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s elite receivers and will be considering Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs. The 49ers will also consider Derrick Brown or Isaiah Simmons if they drop. They will also consider Javon Kinlaw if he lasts to 13th overall. In the end, the 49ers need for a true number one receiver should win out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14th overall)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are loaded with talent on their defensive front and are not expected to seriously consider a first-round edge rusher. Tampa Bay is much more likely to consider options at cornerback and the offensive line. The offensive line may be viewed as a priority, but would likely take one of the top three linemen on their board to drop to them at 14th overall. Tampa Bay at 14th overall can safely be ruled out as a landing spot for Chaisson.
Denver Broncos (15th overall)
K’Lavon Chaisson would be a rock-solid addition for the Denver Broncos. They would likely prefer to go offensive lineman at this spot, but that would require one of their top-rated prospects to still be available at 15th overall. The most likely scenario is that the Broncos opt to select a wide receiver or a cornerback here. Chris Harris left in free agency, leaving their secondary devoid of anyone who could even pass for a number one corner at this stage of their career. DaeSean Hamilton was a major disappointment in 2019, and the Broncos will be in the market for an upgrade beside Courtland Sutton at some point of the draft.
Atlanta Falcons (16th overall)
This is why BetMGM changed the number from 15.5 to 16.5. The Atlanta Falcons have been in the market for an edge rusher for what seems like ages but mercifully added Dante Fowler this offseason after stubbornly refusing to address their need with any real sort of effort prior to 2020 free agency. Atlanta may still view the edge as a need however as Takkarist McKinley set new career lows in sacks and sack percentage. He was however solid enough in the pressure percentage department to project some improvement with Dante Fowler causing havoc on the opposite side. Atlanta, along with the New York Jets are two of the favorites to land K’Lavon Chaisson in the top 16.
There is only one team expected to seriously consider K’Lavon Chaisson in the top 15. The odds for this prop have seen a major move over the last week, jumping a full draft position from 15.5 at -110 on both sides to 16.5. This suggests that a flurry of sharp action astutely came in on the over. As alluded to above, moving the line to 16.5 was an ingenious ploy to include the Atlanta Falcons into the mix for under bettors. The book wants action to be relatively even on both sides to avoid getting hit too hard, but the over is still the much greater value. What they have done however is taken this from a potential three to five-unit play down to a one or two-unit play. Despite moving the line, the juice is still on the under here which should tell us all we need to know. The only team truly expected to draft K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round has been rumored to be much more enamored with the offensive line and wide receiver prospects. The over is the play, so be sure to lock it in at BetMGM before the line or juice are tinkered with even more.
The pick: Over 16.5 (-120)