We've finally reached the pinnacle of the men's college basketball season. A tournament that has featured countless stories and amazing finishes finally comes down to one game. A national championship tilt that features the Connecticut Huskies and the San Diego State Aztecs should cap off what has been a fun three weeks. Let's take a look at the PrizePicks board and find a few value plays to add some excitement to the night.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
We've finally reached the pinnacle of the men's college basketball season. A tournament that has featured countless stories and amazing finishes finally comes down to one game. A national championship tilt that features the Connecticut Huskies and the San Diego State Aztecs should cap off what has been a fun three weeks. Let's take a look at the PrizePicks board and find a few value plays to add some excitement to the night.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Adama Sanogo Over 7.5 Rebounds
It's no secret that Sanogo has been on a tear during this tournament. He's been an absolute monster in the post while averaging 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game on the road to the championship game. But, San Diego State will provide a different challenge than the other teams Connecticut has faced so far.
The Aztecs have ridden a strong defense to get into the championship, as their shooting all season has been poor, especially from inside the arc. Their eFG% ranks just 218th in the country with the 246th ranked 2P%. Connecticut will be one of the best shooting defenses they've played all year and that leads to one thing, missed shots. These are missed shot opportunities for Sanogo to clean off the glass.
The Huskies as a team are excellent rebounders, one of the top offensive and defensive rebounding teams in the country. They are most similar to the Alabama team that San Diego State played in the Sweet Sixteen. In that game, the Aztecs were out-rebounded and gave up seven or more rebounds to four separate players. I like Connecticut to have similar success on the boards with Sanogo going over 7.5 in the rebound category.
Andre Jackson Over 0.5 3PM
Jackson is one of the most exciting and dynamic players on the Huskies. One area where he hasn't exactly wowed is his perimeter shooting. On the season he has only 25 3PM in 35 games, and has gone over 0.5 in just 18 of 35. However, I think this is a matchup where he has an upper hand.
San Diego State has one of the best 3P% defenses in the country, allowing just 28.1% from behind the arc. Florida Atlantic showed that San Diego State can be susceptible to the 3-point shot since they allow attempts at one of the highest rates in the nation.
Against teams that allow 0.4 or more 3-point attempts per field goal attempt like SDSU, Jackson gets off over three per game. He also has shot almost 50% in those games. This matchup is a good opportunity for Jackson to get going behind the arc.
Alex Karaban Over 7.5 Points
This prop is also predicated on San Diego State's allowance of 3-point attempts. Karaban takes 60% of his field goal attempts from behind the arc. Against a team like the Aztecs, he should get plenty of opportunities to let it fly.
This number, at 7.5, sits well below Karaban's 9.4 points per game. In addition, Karaban has gone over this number in 25 of the 38 games he's played this year. In those games, he averages 4.7 3PA, compared to 3.4 in the games he has gone under 7.5. Given he's a 40% shooter from deep, that difference is massive.
San Diego State has an incredibly stout defense and Karaban may find it difficult to get good shots up from inside the arc. However, it is a great opportunity to get 3-point attempts up. Even against a team with a great percentage 3-point defense, I like a really strong shooter like Karaban to connect on a few which should help him go over 7.5 points.
Matt Bradley Over 12.5 Points
Matt Bradley has led the Aztecs in scoring all season and after a slow start to the tournament he finally found his stroke on Saturday. The line for Bradley sits at 12.5, a number he has gone over in 22 of 38 games he's appeared in this season. Connecticut will be a difficult matchup from a eFG% defense standpoint but Bradley isn't one to shy away from a challenge.
Even if he has difficulty scoring from the field there is one place he can take advantage of the Huskies' defense. Connecticut sends opponents to the free throw line at one of the highest rates in the country. This is a place Bradley thrives, shooting 80% on the season.
Bradley will get plenty of opportunities to score in this game. The question will be if he can improve on the shooting performance he's had so far. This will be his final college game and I expect him to go out swinging regardless of the score. He should be able to exceed his 12.5 points prop on PrizePicks.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
