2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 PrizePicks Player Predictions: Thursday

THE BALL IS TIPPED...

The madness of March officially gets underway Thursday. This is Christmas morning for college basketball fans and bettors alike. The docket calls for nearly 12 straight hours of high-stakes do-or-die basketball, which means there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to find value on the board. Very few avenues provide better value than PrizePicks, and I'll help you navigate the board to find some good plays to pair to hopefully get your tournament weekend off to a profitable start.

2023 NCAA Tournament Best PrizePicks Props

Here are some of my favorite PrizePicks prop bets.

Jayden Gardner Under 16.5 Points

Jayden Gardner has really come on strong at the end of the season for Virginia. Even though he only averages 12.1 ppg on the year, PrizePicks has set his line at 16.5. Big performances late in the season saw him go over this number in seven of his last 14 games. However, there's reason to like to under.

THE BALL IS TIPPED...

2023 NCAA Tournament Best PrizePicks Props

Here are some of my favorite PrizePicks prop bets.

Jayden Gardner Under 16.5 Points

First off, this is fairly consistent with the market. It has put him at either 16.5, heavily juiced to the under, or at 15.5. The market likes him to go under here, and for good reason. Virginia plays at one of the slowest tempos in the nation. Furman is more than comfortable with playing at any pace, as they've been successful in both low-scoring slogs and run-and-gun tempos.

The game total implies this will be a slow-paced game, as it is currently set at 131.5. When Virginia game totals go under 132, Gardner is 15-3 to under 16.5 on the season. I like him to go under again here and get a solid leg win to start the day.

Gradey Dick Over 4.5 Rebounds

This matchup likely won't have much intrigue in the final score as it is the largest point spread in the entire first round of the tournament. Kansas should run away with this game, and that provides plenty of opportunity for big prop plays. One play that I really like is Grady Dick’s o4.5 rebounds.

In five against low-major squads like Howard, Dick has gone over 4.5 in four of the five contests. Clearing the number easily in all four. This includes a few blowouts where he played limited minutes. Howard provides a really good matchup for Dick since they aren't a very good defensive-rebounding team. In a similar size and position comparison, the Bison allowed 11 rebounds to Jacob Toppin of Kentucky in their only other matchup against a high major school. I like Dick to follow suit and go over his rebound number.

Jalen Pickett Over 5.5 Assists

The matchup here for Penn State against Texas A&M provides the perfect recipe for Jalen Pickett to go over 5.5 assists on this Thursday night tilt. Pickett has been the motor behind Penn State's 17th-ranked adjusted offense on KenPom. His scoring has been phenomenal all season, but he has also thrived at racking up assists, averaging 6.7 on the season.

Pickett is well equipped to record assists in this offense as he's typically the guy taking the ball to the rim and kicking it out to the elite three-point shooters on the roster that has a top 10 3PM% and a top 10 3PA rate. The Nittany Lions are likely licking their chops after being paired up with a Texas A&M squad that ranks near the bottom of the nation in defensive 3PA rate and defensive assist rate. Throw in that the Aggies have an excellent 2P% defense, and it is a perfect storm for Pickett to kick out to shooters for good looks all game long.

Andrew Funk Under 3.5 Rebounds

I like one other prop from Penn State and Texas A&M, and it is Andrew Funk’s u3.5 rebounds. Texas A&M has the sixth-best offensive rebounding rate in the nation. If they aren't hitting shots, they'll give themselves an opportunity for second-chance points, but more importantly, it takes rebounds away from Penn State.

Funk averages just 2.9 rebounds per game on the year, and in 11 games against top-100 OR% rebounding teams, he averaged just 2.4 and went under 3.5 in seven of the games. Funk will be relied on shoot threes in this game and not necessarily get rebounds. I like him to go under in this matchup.

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