2024 The American Express: PGA Best Weekend Picks

The third round of the American Express is set to get underway on Saturday from the Coachella Valley in southern California. It’s a unique event due to each player competing on three different par 72 courses, with a cut line enforced after Saturday’s third round, giving all golfers the opportunity to improve their score on each track.

So far, it’s been a birdie fest, as predicted, with many par 4s within striking distance from the fairway and off the tee boxes. Normally, this article would be written following Friday’s traditional cut line going into effect, but this time, we’re still waiting on third-round performances before Sunday’s final groups crystalize. Even with this unique format and a lot of meaningful golf left to play, it’s not too early to provide a couple of best weekend picks to wager in the PGA Tour’s outright winner betting market.

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2024 The American Express: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are .5u and .75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll.

Sam Burns (+350 via FanDuel): 0.75u

Louisiana native Sam Burns scorched the Jack Nicklaus Tournament course on Friday, going -11-under-par to climb into a one-stroke lead over Michael Kim. Burns logged a T11 finish at the 2023 American Express, going -8-under-par in the first and third round, with much more pedestrian output on Friday and Sunday. So far, Burns has looked sharp, brandishing his putter and irons to form a potent one-two combo. Burns appears to be in his bag in his first event of 2024, so why not invest in the current outright betting favorite at +350 odds? Another round of -6-under-par or better will dry these odds up and possibly flip them into minus odds, so let’s strike while the value is still intact ahead of Burns taking the tee box on the Stadium Course on Saturday.

Patrick Cantlay (+650 via FanDuel): 0.75u

One of my pre-tournament favorites to contend down the stretch was southern California native Patrick Cantlay. Through two rounds, Cantlay has looked impressive, starting at -8-under-par on the La Quinta course, before going -6-under-par on the Nicklaus Tournament course on Friday. Cantlay has a ton of strong finishes at the American Express in past appearances, and when his driver, irons, and putter are all functioning smoothly, as they’ve been through two rounds, there are few who can keep up. +650 is solid value considering Cantlay is the second outright betting favorite ahead of his third round on the Stadium Course, where he’ll be grouped with Scottie Scheffler, so expect Cantlay to continue producing at a high clip. Previous finishes of T26, 9th, and second should leave bettors feeling encouraged about Cantlay finally taking the winning podium on Sunday night.

J.T. Poston (+2800 via FanDuel): 0.50u

Undoubtedly the best value on the board right now in the outright betting market is J.T. Poston. At +2800 odds, the North Carolina native can easily go on a run in the final two days, as he currently occupies T17 following his performance on the La Quinta course. Poston is set to go on the Nicklaus Tournament course, which has yielded some of the lowest scores in the field this week. He’s already gone from -5-under-par to -7-under-par, improving his output, with only two holes worse than par through two rounds. Ranked ninth in strokes gained around the green, 24th in strokes gained putting, and already with two T10 finishes during the two-week Hawaiian leg, Poston is among the hottest golfers competing at The American Express, so invest half a unit on Poston for a lucrative payout at +2800 odds.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.