There are very few times that having a quick trigger as a motorsports bettor has hurt me. In fact, this week it may have just been my saving grace.
In anticipation of leaving the country for my brother’s wedding and missing the prop markets drop, I placed a trio of 2025 Indianapolis 500 outright bets on Saturday, May 18, following day No. 1 of qualifying. One name in particular stuck out: Robert Shwartzman, a 25-year-old Israeli driver making the first oval start of his career for Prema Racing, a new team to the series as of this year. He advanced to the Fast 12 and day two of qualifying.
Reminiscent of when Cup Series rookie Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500, I immediately shopped around to find the longest number I could on the kid. Wouldn’t you know that Shwartzman would go on to win the pole the following day, becoming the first rookie to do so since Teo Fabi in 1983.
This could go down as the biggest motorsports upset of this decade when it’s all said and done, only adding to the compelling storylines this race offers. Can Josef Newgarden become the first-ever driver to win three-straight Indy 500s? How Will 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson fare in his second attempt at “The Double”?
It all comes to a head at 12:45 p.m. ET on May 25. Consider getting in on the action with my best bets for the 2025 Indianapolis 500.
2025 Indianapolis 500: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Outright: Robert Shwartzman (+6600 via BetRivers) | .3u
Shwartzman will attempt to become the 10th rookie to win the Indianapolis 500, joining a list that includes names like Helio Castroneves and Juan Pablo Montoya. There is no data to lean on for handicapping him other than four starts earlier this season on road courses and street courses that resulted in a 21.3 average finish.
However, the pole position has produced 21 Indy 500 winners (19.4%) in 108 years, last being won from in 2018 by Simon Pagenaud. Evident in his four-lap qualifying effort, Shwartman has the speed and skill to win this race. It now just comes down to whether or not he’ll be able to overcome his lack of experience running in the pack.
At 66-1, that’s a gamble I’m more than happy to make. If you can find anything above a 40-1 on him when all books re-release their odds, I’d recommend hopping on board too.
Outright: Alex Palou (+600 via FanDuel) | 1.4u
Winning three of the last four IndyCar Championships and three of the first four races this season, there’s no more denying that Alex Palou is the series’ top driver. Next on the bucket list for the Spaniard is to lift the Borg-Warner Trophy and kiss the bricks.
He’s been in the mix in four of his five Indianapolis 500 starts, posting a 5.0 average finish and leading 119 total laps since 2021. He’ll roll off sixth in row No. 2 on Sunday and should be in contention throughout the day. He was the betting favorite pre-qualifying and looks to still be as books begin to re-release after. Whether it’s on the 6-1 outright or a placement prop, Palou is a must-add to your betting card.
Outright: Josef Newgarden (+700 via FanDuel) | .6u
If Newgarden thought he was under pressure as he vied for his third consecutive milk drink, the temperature just got turned up a notch. After advancing to the Top 12 and seeing his Team Penske teammate Scott McLaughlin crash during Day No. 2’s qualifying run, Newgarden and his other teammate, Will Power, were disqualified after failing inspection for unapproved seam seals.
The good news is that Newgarden will still roll off on the fourth row and seems to cook best in a hot kitchen. The Tennessee native has a 7.9 average finish in his five Indianapolis 500 attempts running for “The Captain” Roger Penske.
Newgarden has the innate ability to not lead many laps in this race but be there when it counts, similar to Kevin Harvick in his prime NASCAR Cup Series seasons. Call it Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), but I’m once again backing IndyCar’s version of “The Closer” on the 7-1 outright at FanDuel.
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”