The Elite Eight concludes on Sunday with the Midwest and South Region finals. The total for the Houston Cougars vs. Tennessee Volunteers is set at just 124.5. Is it worth taking any Overs in that game? Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers and Michigan State Spartans are expected to battle in a high-scoring contest. What should we expect from Chad Baker-Mazara and Jaden Akins in that game?
Here are the best PrizePicks plays for Sunday's NCAA Tournament Elite Eight action.
2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>
The Elite Eight concludes on Sunday with the Midwest and South Region finals. The total for the Houston Cougars vs. Tennessee Volunteers is set at just 124.5. Is it worth taking any Overs in that game? Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers and Michigan State Spartans are expected to battle in a high-scoring contest. What should we expect from Chad Baker-Mazara and Jaden Akins in that game?
Here are the best PrizePicks plays for Sunday's NCAA Tournament Elite Eight action.
2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>
Sunday’s Best NCAA Tournament PrizePicks Player Predictions
Lanier is averaging 18.0 points per game this season, but he may go well under that number against the Cougars. Lanier has scored at least 20 points in two of his three games during the NCAA Tournament, but he only managed 17 against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Sweet 16. In that game, he was just 1-of-6 from beyond the arc.
The Cougars are the only team in the nation allowing fewer than 60 points per game. While they did give up 76 to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Round of 32, that performance had a lot to do with how the Bulldogs play. They're a fast-paced team, and they were able to instill their will early. While the Volunteers can score, they also play at a slower pace than most. And considering the Cougars have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 64 or fewer, I'm not expecting many scoring opportunities for Lanier.
Had it not been for a 17-point performance against the Creighton Bluejays, Baker-Mazara would be having the most disappointing performance of any player at this year's tournament. The Tigers' second-leading scorer is averaging 12.3 points per game this season, but he's scored six or fewer points in two of his three tournament games. He's just 9-of-30 from the floor thus far, and he's shot 22.2% or worse in two of his three contests.
Baker-Mazara wasn't playing very well right before the tournament either. He didn't score more than nine points in any of his three games immediately preceding the Big Dance, and he was just 8-of-21 from the field during that stretch.
All that said, I think it's finally time to back Baker-Mazara to break out of his funk. The Spartans are one of the best defensive teams in the country, so this may seem counterintuitive, but Baker-Mazar is still getting his usual number of shots up – he's just not making them. This is a player who scored at least 15 in 12 games during the regular season. He doesn't even have to perform great to hit this number, he just can't be as bad as he's been.
Akins leads the Spartans in made three-pointers this season, but he's taken a backseat to other players in the NCAA Tournament. Akins is just 5-of-19 from beyond the arc, and he made just one three-pointer in the Sweet 16 against the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Tigers are great at defending the three-point line – they rank seventh in the nation in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Although Creighton shot well against the Tigers, it's hard to imagine a struggling player breaking out of a funk against them. Expect Akins to try to find his shot inside the arc, as players like Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman do the damage from beyond the arc.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.
