The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the PGA Tour’s third Signature Event of 2026. Hosted at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, only 72 golfers will compete for this elevated purse. A cut line will be enforced for anyone outside the top 50 or more than 10 strokes behind the
As customary with Florida golf courses, Bay Hill features water hazards on most of its holes. Bermudagrass is the surface for fairways, rough, and undulating greens that may run faster than 13 feet. It’s a par 72 that runs 7,466 yards
Greens measure 7,500 square feet on average and are not overseeded, departing from the conditions at PGA National last week. Rough has grown to four inches, meaning golfers must blend distance with accuracy to climb the leaderboard at Bay Hill.
Due to the Signature Event, all of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in Orlando. Scottie Scheffler leads the pack, looking to secure his third win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2022.
Scheffler is a short betting favorite yet again at +350 odds. He’s followed by Rory McIlroy at +1000, then a pair of Englishmen in Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick at +2000. Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are the other outright betting favorites shorter than +3000.
My 2026 Cognizant Classic Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets settled 1-1-1. Will Zalatoris’ withdrawal led to a voided wager. Shane Lowry’s collapse in the Bear Trap on Sunday cost the Irishman an outright win, but he still cashed our Top 20 Finishing Position wager at -125. Keith Mitchell, who won this event when it was the Honda Classic, played well, easily beating Michael Thorbjornsen as an underdog in our 72 Hole Matchbet.
I’ve got three PGA best bets to tail for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
Arnold Palmer Invitational (2026): Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 5 Finishing Position
Scottie Scheffler returns after a week off with his sights undoubtedly set on a third outright win at Bay Hill. The World No. 1 won his first event of 2026 at The American Express in dominant fashion.
Poor scores in Round 1 have kept Scheffler from stacking more wins this season. He should be locked in at a course where he’s had two outright wins and three top 5 finishes in five outings.
Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, putting average, scoring average, par 4 scoring, and birdie average. If that’s not enough, he’s also the second in SG: Off-the-Tee and greens in regulation at a scorching 76.7 percent clip.
Bet on Scottie Scheffler to log his fourth top 5 finish of 2026 at Bay Hill this week.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler (-125)
Top 10 Finishing Position
Tommy Fleetwood’s driving accuracy is going to keep him in position against this stacked field. The 2025 FedExCup champion has three top 10 finishes at Bay Hill in nine trips, including a T11 finish in 2025.
We’ve watched Fleetwood post a T4 finish during his 2026 debut at Pebble Beach. Then, he logged a T7 finish at Riviera during The Genesis Invitational.
Fleetwood is also well-rested ahead of Round 1 in Orlando. He’s ranked fifth in total strokes gained this season. Most notably, he’s top-five in multiple putting metrics, including first for one-putt percentage.
Approach play, proximity, and driving distance have all been relatively weak for Fleetwood. It’s forced him to frequently scramble, which is why he’s second in scrambling on the PGA Tour.
However, with Fleetwood’s putter an asset rather than a liability, plus his driving accuracy, we should see him find these large greens in regulation without much difficulty this week.
Bet on Fleetwood to log a third straight top 10 finish ahead of his 10th career visit to Bay Hill at a lucrative +180 price.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+180)
Top 20 Finishing Position
Min Woo Lee has not had much success in four trips to Bay Hill. Yet, the Aussie golfer has had a strong start to his 2026 season, logging a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach and a T12 finish at The Genesis Invitational.
Lee didn’t play at the Cognizant Classic last week. He’ll be prepared to play better at Bay Hill this time around, especially with a strong driver and putter.
Lee ranks 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee. This includes seventh in distance and 18th in driving accuracy, which is why he leads the PGA Tour in total driving this year.
Other notable metrics include 38th in proximity, 26th in scrambling, and 27th in putting average. As a result, Lee is 21st or better in birdie average, par 4 scoring, and total scoring average.
It’s time for Min Woo Lee to post his first career top 20 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Let’s wrap up by betting on Lee in the Top 20 Finishing Position market at plus odds.
Pick: Min Woo Lee (+125)
