The third day of the 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup kicks off on Sunday, and there is no shortage of betting options to explore. We will be going through what we consider to be the best plays to combine for a FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup game for Italy vs. USA.
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Sunday’s Best 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Picks: Italy vs. USA
The FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup is the premier international competition in women's basketball, bringing together the world's top national teams to compete for a global championship. Organized by FIBA, the tournament is typically held every four years.
Team USA First-Quarter Moneyline & First Quarter Under 38.5 Points (-104)
Team USA made six three-pointers in the opening quarter of its last game, fueling an offensive explosion that will be difficult to replicate. Even for a roster loaded with elite shooters and playmakers, that level of efficiency from beyond the arc is difficult to sustain. Team USA made only six more three-pointers over the final three quarters, illustrating just how unusual its hot start was. Without that early barrage from long distance, the first-quarter score-and the game's overall scoring pace-would have been considerably lower.
Italy's recent performance also supports the under. The Italians managed only 14 first-quarter points against Czechia, a team that does not possess anything close to Team USA's defensive talent, length or athleticism. Italy should have an even tougher time creating clean looks against the Americans, particularly early in the game as it adjusts to Team USA's pressure and speed.
The primary concern is that Team USA could threaten the total almost by itself. However, some natural shooting regression, combined with Italy's likely struggles on offense, should keep the first-quarter score manageable. We expect Team USA to establish control without needing another historic shooting display.
The margin may be razor-thin, but the matchup gives us a viable path to fewer than 38.5 combined points while Team USA carries a lead of at least one point into the second quarter.
Odds: -104
