Eight of Major League Baseball’s top sluggers compete for the Home Run Derby title at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday night. The fact that this will be the first Derby streamed exclusively on Netflix is not the only big change from years past. Below, you will find our top 2026 MLB Home Derby picks.
Instead of each batter hitting under a timed pitch clock each round, the Home Run Derby is going back to more of an “old school” format where batters will get to see how many long balls they can hit with a finite number of swings.
The players with the four highest home run totals in the first round will advance to a bracketed, head-to-head competition from then on. The swing totals are as follows: 20 in round one, 15 in round two and another 15 in the final round. Instead of a race against the clock, fans and viewers get to marvel at how far these sluggers can blast the ball.
I offer two different 2026 MLB Home Run Derby picks and predictions for Monday’s event. Not only do I pick my winner for the competition, but I also make my pick for who will hit the longest homer of the entire event.
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2026 Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions
Odds to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Junior Caminero to Win the Home Run Derby (+425)
A theme of this season has been power-hitting from left-handed bats, as eight of the top 10 sluggers in terms of OPS (minimum 300 plate appearances) are lefties. But Junior Caminero is one of the exceptions to that rule. He looks to use last year’s experience of reaching the Home Run Derby finals to bring home the hardware this year.
Caminero enters the All-Star break two home runs shy of becoming the second Rays player in franchise history to hit 30 home runs in consecutive seasons (Carlos Pena, 2007-09). He is destined to become the first Ray to hit 45+ home runs in multiple seasons.
Caminero also knows how to hit home runs in bunches, as his 10 home runs in a 10-game span this season were the most in Rays history.
I’m fading the two Phillies in the competition, as just three players have won a Home Run Derby in their home ballpark:
- Bryce Harper (Nationals Park, 2018)
- Todd Frazier (Great American Ball Park, 2015)
- Ryne Sandberg (Wrigley Field, 1990)
It should be easy for Caminero to shift gears from last year’s “rapid fire” format to a slower, more controlled one this year. I wanted to back a player with Home Run Derby experience, and making the finals a year ago is compelling enough to back Caminero.
Jac Caglianone to Hit the Longest Home Run (+500)
I’m always a softy for players having their fathers pitch to them in a Home Run Derby, so I had to find a way to back Jac Caglianone.
Jac Caglianone practicing for the Derby with his dad throwing to him. An absolute power display, including numerous balls hit onto Eutaw St. pic.twitter.com/ezH3RjU30F
— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) July 12, 2026
The lefty’s longest home run of the season, a 444-foot blast, came just three weeks ago. Kansas City drafted him No. 6 overall in 2024 largely because it fell in love with his power potential, and he slugged his way through Double-A and Triple-A in less than a year.
Caglianone’s 77.2 miles per hour (MPH) bat speed ranks in the top six. And upon his announcement of participation in the Home Run Derby, his 418 feet of average home run distance was tied for the longest of any player (minimum 10 home runs). He is one of 20 players with a 466-foot or longer home run since the start of 2025.
Caglianone obviously has a better chance to cash this wager the longer he stays in the competition. With him holding the fourth-highest odds, there is a great chance he at least makes it out of the first round.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.