We’re heading to New York for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. It’s going to be quite a test for the field of 156, with false fronts, dozens of bunkers, wind defense, undulating fairways, and massive greens that stretch over 8,800 square feet on average.
This means high scores will be abundant and birdies carry quite a premium. It’s a great time to dive into the Make/Miss The Cut prop betting market on FanDuel Sportsbook before Round 1 tees off on Thursday morning.
Let’s lock in four of my favorite bets to make or miss the cut, which will be the top 60 golfers and ties, at the 2026 U.S. Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis.
2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Favorite Bets to Make/Miss The Cut
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
To Make The Cut – Keegan Bradley (-126)
Keegan Bradley is a reasonable price in the To Make The Cut market this week. Bradley has made the cut at three of the last five U.S. Open events, although he did miss the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
He’s ranked 42nd in total driving, top-40 in 200+ yard approach shots, and top-60 for sand save rate. All of these metrics will help Bradley at Shinnecock, where errant tee and approach shots get severely punished in the tall fescue rough.
In his last nine events played, Bradley has made eight of nine cuts. Let’s bet on Bradley to avenge his missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 with enough production in Round 1 and Round 2 to make the cut and play into the weekend.
To Make The Cut – Nick Taylor (-110)
Nick Taylor is capable of playing really good golf in tough events. The Canadian golfer has not played his best at U.S. Open majors historically, although he did log a T23 finish at Oakmont last year.
In 2026, Taylor has shown moments of greatness, although he only has one top 10 finish under his belt. He’s ranked 36th in driving accuracy, 52nd in proximity, 47th in scrambling, and 27th for sand save rate. Taylor is also above average with his putter, so I like how he profiles ahead of his Shinnecock debut.
Let’s stake another full unit onto Taylor to make the cut at -110 odds.
To Miss The Cut – Justin Thomas (+152)
There’s no doubt that Justin Thomas is one of the premier golfers on the PGA Tour. However, he’s not played with consistency across the last few years, while missing the cut at three consecutive U.S. Open events.
Thomas has made the cut in nine straight events following a horrendous +14 missed cut during his season debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His offseason back surgery may have played a factor in that tournament.
In 2026, Thomas ranks 81st in SG: Approach, 94th in SG: Putting, 82nd in driving accuracy, 142nd for greens in regulation hit, 128th in proximity, and 100th in scrambling. That’s a recipe for disaster at Shinnecock.
Despite logging a T25 finish at this course in 2018, his current form leaves a lot to be desired at a challenging venue like Shinnecock. Bet on Thomas to miss the cut at plus odds this week.
To Miss The Cut – Bryson DeChambeau (+140)
2026 has not been a good year on the golf course for Bryson DeChambeau. He’s lost -1.81 and -2.14 strokes around the green at both previous majors, while also losing strokes gained on approach.
Of course, the big incentive for DeChambeau is his powerful off-the-tee ability. Yet, if he can’t control the drives, then the five-inch fescue is going to make it extremely difficult to make the cut at Shinnecock this week.
DeChambeau has yet to make a cut at a major this season. I don’t think it starts now, especially with how important play around the green and on approach is to succeed at this course.
Fade DeChambeau and bet on him to miss the cut at +140 odds.