The U.S. Open tees off from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, this week. The third major of the season means we’ve got a field chock full of the world’s best golfers set to tee off at one of the most difficult courses in the country.
The last time Shinnecock hosted this major, Brooks Koepka won with a final score of +1. That shows just how difficult it is to score low at this par 70, with most of its primary defense coming from tall fescue rough, massive elevated greens, undulating fairways, more than 150 bunkers, and plenty of tricky wind conditions.
Navigating these hazards will be tough sledding for most golfers. However, in this betting preview, I’m going to highlight a few Round 1 head-to-head props that hold value during Thursday’s opening round.
Let’s lock in these wagers for some exciting early tournament action at the 2026 U.S. Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis.
2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Round 1 Head-to-Head Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
3 Ball (Round 1) – Schauffele/Thomas/Matsuyama
We’re going to roll out the chalk play and back Xander Schauffele in the 3-Ball market in Round 1 against Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama. Schauffele is a strong performer on the major stage, while ranking much more highly in tee-to-green accuracy than his opponents this season.
Schauffele sits 27th in SG: Approach and 12th in scrambling. Thomas ranks 81st in approach play and 100th in scrambling, while Matsuyama is 115th in driving accuracy, 101st for greens in regulation hit, and 122nd in scrambling from the rough.
All signs point toward Schauffele posting the lowest score in Round 1 in this 3-ball matchup. Any time we can get plus odds on Schauffele, we’re taking it, so stake one unit on this 3-Ball matchup for Schauffele to beat Thomas and Matsuyama on Thursday.
Pick: Xander Schauffele (+115)
18 Hole Matchbet (Round 1) Bryson DeChambeau vs. Russell Henley
Now we’re moving into one-on-one matchups in the 18 Hole Matchbet market on FanDuel. Let’s start with backing Russell Henley as a marginal favorite over Bryson DeChambeau.
Henley’s game is a stark contrast to DeChambeau, relying on tee-to-green accuracy and brandishing a strong putting ability. The LIV golfer and YouTube star has two U.S. Open titles throughout his career, although he’s failed to make the cut at either previous major this season.
Henley ranks 12th in total strokes gained, including leading the entire PGA Tour in driving accuracy and scrambling. Let’s put our chips on Henley to win this Round 1 18 Hole Matchbet against DeChambeau at -125 odds.
Pick: Russell Henley (-125)
18 Hole Matchbet (Round 1) Justin Thomas vs. Patrick Cantlay
Two of the most decorated PGA Tour veterans, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay, have been paired into this final 18 Hole Matchbet that we’re going to take for Round 1. Oddsmakers slightly favor Cantlay at -120 odds.
Thomas has had a fairly strong resurgence in 2026 after missing the cut at his first event following offseason back surgery. However, he’s missed the cut in three straight U.S. Open appearances, while currently ranked 100th or worse in scrambling, proximity, greens in regulation hit, par 4 scoring, and scoring average.
Cantlay missed the cut at Oakmont last season during the 2025 U.S. Open. That marked his first missed cut at this major throughout his career. In 2026, Cantlay has three top 10 finishes, with two of those coming since April at the RBC Heritage and Truist Championship.
Cantlay also ranks 14th in total strokes gained, including 30th in SG: Approach, compared to Thomas’ 81st in SG: Approach metric. Cantlay is 21st for greens in regulation hit, 25th in scrambling, and sports a solid 53rd putting average.
Thomas is too volatile to back, particularly at a course that demands precision on approach and the ability to get up and down with scrambling scenarios. Bet one more unit on Cantlay to beat Thomas in this 18-Hole Matchbet at -120 odds.
Pick: Patrick Cantlay (-120)