There is only one game tonight: the WNBA All-Star Game featuring the best of the best that the league has to offer. Like every game, fans will have plenty of ways to bet on the game, but I want to focus on just one: who is going to make the First Basket of the game.
It is one of the more challenging betting markets to predict, but that's also why getting it right comes with a good reward. Let's discuss some options.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday's Best WNBA All-Star Game First Basket Scorer Bets
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
- A'ja Wilson (Aces) +400
- Caitlin Clark (Fever) +600
- Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) +700
- Olivia Miles (Lynx) +700
- Aliyah Boston (Fever) +700
- Breanna Stewart (Liberty) +750
- Paige Bueckers (Wings) +750
- Gabby Williams (Valkyries) +1200
- Natahsa Howard (Lynx) +1400
- Jessica Shepard (Wings) +1400
One of the challenges with this market and the All-Star game is, of course, weeding people out. Every player on the court is an alpha that has their hands on the ball a significant amount of time for their respective teams. It's the All-Star Game, so they are all good shooters (some better than others, of course) and completely capable of making that shot.
So how do you choose?
From the options we have, Wilson has made the most first baskets this season with five, followed by Kelsey Mitchell, Paige Bueckers, and Gabby Williams each with four. Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard can account for three each, and Jessica Shepard, Olivia Miles, and Breanna Stewart have all made two.
Of the last five All-Star Games, Stewart attempted the first shot and missed twice. Aliyah Boston and Paige Bueckers are the only active players playing today to have made the first basket in an All-Star Game in the last five seasons.
Caitlin Clark is the only one on the list to have not made the first basket in a game this season. She has attempted the first basket in a game only twice.
Breaking Down First Basket Data
Kelsey Mitchell has taken the first shot in a game more than anyone (8). Paige Bueckers has done so five times as has Olivia Miles. Aliyah Boston has done so four times.
Centers seem to make the first basket the least; a center has not made the first basket on eight teams. Guards have done so with a higher frequency (over 50%) for four teams, while it has been forwards making over 50% for three teams.
For seven teams, the layup has been the most common type of first basket while it has been 2-pointers for four and 3-pointers for three (even split between layups and 3-pointers for Minnesota).
So, from all of this information, who is worth betting on tonight?
I'm going with Kelsey Mitchell for my top choice since she has taken the first shot more than anyone. Otherwise, I'd consider putting money down on Paige Bueckers, who has attempted a high number of first baskets, made the most, and has the third-highest offensive rating amongst starters in the All-Star Game (A'ja Wilson-117.4, Kelsey Mitchell-115.7).
Picks: Kelsey Mitchell (+700) & Paige Bueckers (+750)
