Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Patriots (Week 3)

Last week’s Thursday Night Football game was an AFC East battle with fireworks expectations. This week’s is another AFC East battle. However, the defenses are more well-regarded in this matchup. As a result, two unders are among the highlighted bets. A pair of overs are also intriguing.

Here are my best bets for the Week 3 Jets/Patriots matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Best Thursday Night Football Week 3 Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.

Breece Hall 40+ Receiving Yards (+162 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Breece Hall is a legitimate weapon in Gang Green’s passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 33 running backs targeted at least five times this season, Hall is tied for first in targets (14), second in receptions (12), fourth in receiving yards (91), 10th in routes (42) and fourth in yards per route run (2.12 Y/RR). Hall also has a positive average depth of target (0.9-yard aDOT) and has aligned in the slot twice and wide six times.

Hall’s movement around the formation indicates he’s among New York’s best receiving options. However, it’s not the only indication of his importance in Gang Green’s offense. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Hall’s 20.0% first-read rate is second among running backs this season.

The matchup is also stellar for Hall. According to Pro Football Reference, running backs have had 10 receptions and 60 receiving yards against the Patriots this year, and Hall is a much better receiving option than any running back New England has faced this season. Therefore, getting plus betting odds on his alternate receiving line is compelling.

Breece Hall UNDER 16.5 Rush Attempts (-121 at Caesars Sportsbook)

I sandbagged another reason to be optimistic about Hall’s receiving outlook because it’s more critical for going under 16.5 rush attempts. According to RotoViz’s pace app, New England’s defense has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (70%) this season.

Hall has rushed 16 and 14 times through two games, and the matchup doesn’t inspire confidence in him setting a new season-high for rush attempts. Gang Green’s offense isn’t optimal for Hall to pile up rush attempts, either.

First, the Jets are tied for the 13th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (56%). Second, New York’s 54 plays per-60 minute situation-neutral play rate is the ninth-lowest this year.

Finally, Hall might need to thread a needle to exceed 16.5 rush attempts. For instance, if the Jets are in a neutral or negative game script, they’ll likely attack the Patriots through the air, but if they’re beating the brakes off the Patriots, they might not want to run Hall into the ground after Braelon Allen had an eye-catching showing in Week 2. As a result, I expect Hall to have fewer than 16.5 rush attempts for a third straight contest.

Mike Williams UNDER 1.5 Receptions (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

New York’s offensive tendencies and New England’s pass-funnel defense are conflicting for Mike Williams’ receiving outlook. What’s clear as day is Williams’ lack of involvement in the passing game through two games.

According to PFF, Williams has only one target on 30 routes. That’s a putrid 3.3% target per route run rate. Yikes. After running six routes in Week 1, Big Mike ran 24 in Week 2. However, his route participation might not climb linearly.

The Jets are playing on a short week, and Williams is returning from ACL surgery. Will they fully unleash him on a short week? It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Jets are cautious with Williams because of the quick turnaround, saying nothing of the game being his first of the season on MetLife’s notoriously lousy turf. Williams’ atrocious usage is the primary reason for this selection, but the potential for his work to be curtailed this week is a cherry on top.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Patriots want to play bully ball as long as games are close. In the first two games of the Jerod Mayo era, the Patriots have had the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (59%). Furthermore, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt previously worked in Cleveland’s run-heavy offense.

Rhamondre Stevenson has rewarded them by toting the rock 25 times for 120 yards against the Bengals and 21 for 81 against the Seahawks. Stevenson has a decent matchup for another stellar showing on Thursday night. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, New York’s defense has allowed the 16th-most yards before contact per attempt (1.45) and the third-most yards after contact per attempt (2.88) this season.

Stevenson is a nightmare for defenses allowing yards after contact. Per PFF, Stevenson is tied for the most missed tackles forced (13) on runs and 11th among 50 running backs with at least 10 rush attempts this year in PFF’s elusiveness metric. So, FantasyPros projects Stevenson to have 67.3 rushing yards against the Jets.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.