We’re on to Week 5, and it’s a full Saturday of action, with a handful of marquee games affecting the potential playoff picture later down the road.
As usual, we have a handful of smaller-school games we’ll be highlighting, as well as a short snippet and pick for the titanic matchup in the Big Ten conference between the Oregon Ducks and Penn State Nittany Lions.
Let’s build our bankroll with our best college football parlays and picks.
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Saturday’s Best College Football Week 5 Parlays & Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
We have some MACtion from Mount Pleasant on Saturday afternoon, as Eastern Michigan (1-3) and Central Michigan (2-2) meet for their conference opener at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
The home team has won the past four meetings in this series, with Eastern Michigan covering the past three. The Over has cashed in three straight meetings, too, including a wild 38-34 win by the Eagles in Ypsilanti on that ridiculous gray turf field as the Over (52.5) easily connected.
So far this season, EMU has scored at least 23 points in every game. The defense has allowed 28 or more points, and it lost outright to Long Island of the FCS on Sept. 6. The Over is 3-0 in three games against FBS opponents, too.
For Central Michigan, the Over has cashed in three straight games, and the Chips have allowed 45 or more points in the past two games against FBS foes. The CMU offense has had trouble scoring, but that shouldn’t be the case against the very giving Eagles.
Let’s back the home side, and we’ll go high on the total.
Picks: Central Michigan -3.5 (-102) & Over 54.5 Points (-114)
In Sun Belt (Fun Belt!) action, Arkansas State (1-3) meets UL Monroe (2-1) at Malone Stadium in Monroe, La. at 3 p.m. ET. That game can be streamed on ESPN+.
Arkansas State leads the all-time series 31-14, and it has won 15 straight meetings dating back to 2010. In addition, the Red Wolves have covered 15 straight in this series. The last win and cover by the Warhawks in this series was back on Oct. 13, 2009, a 16-10 victory in Monroe. That means ULM sophomore QB Aidan Armenta was not even five years old yet. Yeah, it’s been a while. The Over has cashed in four of the past five meetings in Monroe, too.
Arkansas State has stumbled out of the gate, losing all three games to FBS opponents. However, two of those losses are at Arkansas and home to Iowa State, a pair of Power 4 teams. Ark State is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, too, while the Under has cashed in the past two.
ULM topped UTEP 31-25 last week as a 5.5-point favorite on the road, and it beat St. Francis (PA) of the FCS 29-0 on Aug. 28. Between those two wins was a 73-0 loss at Alabama on Sept. 6. It had two weeks to prepare for UTEP, having a bye in Week 3. For this one, ULM is not just facing Ark State, but an 0-15 SU/ATS skid in the series. Eventually, the streak must end, but in this coin-flip game, you have to go with the overwhelming historical trends.
San Diego State (2-1) heads to Dekalb to battle Northern Illinois (1-2), and the Aztecs are flying high after routing Cal 34-0 last weekend as a 14-point underdog while the Under (47) cashed.
The Aztecs have posted two shutout victories, both at home, while losing 36-13 at Washington State on Sept. 6. So, the jury is definitely still out on the viability of San Diego State.
However, Northern Illinois is not a good team, and San Diego State is a popular play this weekend. NIU has scored 19 or fewer points in all three games, losing 38-10 last week at Mississippi State, while falling 20-9 at Maryland on Sept. 6. It’s only victory was 19-17 against Holy Cross of the FCS back on Aug. 30. The Under has cashed in all three games for the Huskies, too, as the defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in two of the outings.
Picks: San Diego State -1.5 (-115) & Under 42.5 Points (-110)
I know, it’s a big game between ranked teams. Normally, I like to play the smaller schools. A handicapping mentor once told me many years ago when I asked about betting smaller games vs. the big-name schools. “They all cash the same. Winners are winners.” That always stuck with me, and I tend to focus on the smaller games, as the books seemingly do not adjust the lines as much.
Anyway, this big game in Happy Valley features two good teams. However, I like Oregon a heck of a lot more because of two things: Oregon QB Dante Moore and Penn State head coach James Franklin. Moore is one of the most exciting players in college football right now, and Franklin just never seems to be able to win the big game.
Oregon is 2-1-1 ATS in four games, while failing to cover in its only previous road contest. The Ducks won 34-14 at Northwestern, but misfired on the cover as 26.5-point favorites. There is risk here.
Penn State has failed to cover all three games to date, but they were favored by 42 or more points against Nevada, FIU and Villanova. In other words, Penn State has yet to be tested, or even remotely in a close game. How will the Nittany Lions respond in a tight game when adversity strikes? My guess is, like usual under Franklin, not well.
Picks: Oregon +3.5 (-106)
Best Same-Game Parlay
- Leg 1: San Diego State -1.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: San Diego State at Northern Illinois Under 42.5 Points (-110)
Parlay Odds: +225
Best 4-Leg Parlay
- Leg 1: Central Michigan -3.5 (-102)
- Leg 2: Arkansas State Moneyline (+104)
- Leg 3: San Diego State -1.5 (-115)
- Leg 4: Oregon +3.5 (-106)
Parlay Odds: +1367
